Friday, July 20, 2007

Tim Donaghy - Dirty Ref

Tim Donaghy, the NBA referee under investigation by the FBI for influencing the point spread of basketball games he officiated, is the same referee that engaged in a post-game shouting match with Rasheed Wallace a few years back. That incident led to a 7-game suspension for Sheed, and another black eye for the Portland franchise. As I recall, Sheed claimed Donaghy instigated the argument. Maybe we should have listened to him.

Non-Blazer Summer League Evaluations

After returning from Vegas and getting back into some semblance of a routine, here are my non-Blazer Summer League evaluations.

Kevin Durant – Truly an exciting player despite a poor shooting performance. He’s a scary offensive player for the defense because he’s a deadly shooter. I think in Vegas he forced some shots, settled for outside jumpers and didn’t force the issue too much. I think when he adds some bulk you’ll see him attack the rim more because he’ll be more durable. I also think Seattle didn’t do a good job utilizing him in the halfcourt set. They ran him off horizontal screens at the foul line towards the wing creating a tough passing angle from the top, allowing his defender to easily deny him the ball and knock away passes. I think they should have put him on the block and had a post player screen down for him and allow him to read the defender. He would have had about four or five options coming off the screen. Or they could have put him in the corner and done the same kind of thing. He will be a superduper star in no time…if he's not already.

Jeff Green – He was as aggressive on Sunday evening against Portland as I’ve ever seen and really showcased his abilities. He attacked the glass off the dribble, used his jumper effectively and showed his all-around abilities. This was as good as I’ve seen him play. Georgetown’s offensive scheme wasn’t conducive to individuality (Princeton-type offenses are predicated on backcutting and unselfishness) and Green probably suffered from that slightly. He finished the summer league with authority and should team with Kevin Durant to make one of the most devastating and powerful perimeter combos in the league for the next 10-15 years.

Corey Brewer – I really liked Brewer the two times I saw him. He’s an exceptional athlete and did several things well. He showed an ability to attack the rim (even though a couple of times he resorted to circus/lucky shots to finish) and a good outside jumper. Defensively he played well, going against Rudy Gay in the Memphis game. Gay made some great shots against Brewer on his way to 26 points. He also got into the middle and fed the big guys well. I would have loved to get Brewer in Portland to let Jack, Roy, Brewer, Aldridge and Oden grow together for the next 15 years. That would have been a sweet lineup. I think Minnesota got a nice pickup there.

Randy Foye – Had an exceptional summer league and was a deadly shooter. For some reason Memphis went underneath the ball screens and Foye lit them up. Mike Conley repeatedly went underneath the ball screens and Foye had 28 points on 12-17 shooting…many of which were from the perimeter. Foye was Minnesota’s second leading scorer and shot a ridiculous 53% from the three point arc. Don’t ask me why Memphis continually went under the screens rather than hedging and making Foye give the ball up.

Mike Conley – The knock on him coming in was his shooting and that still holds true. Shot poorly (39.8%) from the field and averaged 11.4 points per game. He’s jet quick and does a great job getting into the middle. He’s a great athlete and I like how he stays under control around the rim by coming off a two-foot jump stop. This allows him to be strong around the rim…even though he didn’t finish as well as he did at OSU - but I think that will come. His perimeter shooting was atrocious and this comes from a Conley fan. He was huge for Ohio State last year and I think he’s a great pick for Memphis.

Aaron Brooks – He had an incredible summer league. Easily one of the quickest players in the league and continues to impress with his shooting. Still needs to work on not fading on his pull up threes (it’s tough because he’s so quick that his momentum carries him to the side on his pull up jumpers). I think he’ll fit in with Houston right away and I know T-Mac will demand the ball, but I think “D’s” will have to respect Brooks and his abilities to penetrate. He also excels at flip shots and scoop shots in the paint (at barely 6-0 he needs to be) which makes him a better finisher than people may think. There were countless times in Vegas when Brooks would probe the defense on the dribble and create a wideopen shot on the perimeter without even a screen set. Steve Novak was a primary beneficiary of Brooks’ penetration.

Oleksiy Pecherov – In the first game we watched of the summer league, we were making fun of Pecherov for being ugly. Moments later our jaws hit the floor when he caught the ball out high and like a flash attacked the rim and got an easy lay-up. The fact that he’s listed at 7-0 impressed us even more because he moved like a small forward. He went on to finish with 26 points and 14 boards in that game. He also hit 3-5 from the three-point line which impressed me as well. Pecherov appeared to be reasonably quick with a good skillset. He’s a prospect I will be interested in seeing in the next few years.

Javaris Crittenton – He was known as an erratic player at Georgia Tech but I thought he had a good summer league. He led a sorry Lakers club in scoring and showed no problems putting up a ton of shots. He teamed with Jordan Farmer to form a pretty good backcourt duo. There were many times that Crittenton split the defense on high screens to get into the lane freeing up jump shooters and the low post players. He finished with 28 points, three assists and three turnovers and carried them down the stretch against the Pistons. He finished with 17 points but shot poorly from field and the foul line. He’s a great scorer but unfortunately the Lakers already have someone like that so I’m not sure how he’ll fit in next year.

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Email exchange- state of the roster

Here's the text of an email string between Mark and I. Mark's emails in blue:

Outlaw signed. 3 years, $12 million. No other details. Great price, especially if that 3rd year turns out to be a team option.

Sounds good to me. What is our perimeter looking like now?

1. Jack
2. Blake
3. Sergio
4. Roy
5. Martell
6. Jones
7. Outlaw
8. Green

Am I missing anyone?



The roster is full at 15 guaranteed contracts now. Unless we make another trade, we have:

PG: Jack / Blake / Rodriguez / Green
SG: Roy / Webster
SF: Jones / Outlaw / Miles
PF: Aldridge / Frye / McRoberts
C: Ode-stertag / Pryzbilla / Lafrentz

Freeland, Fernandez and Koponen are in Europe. Ime is gone.

I like that group. It’s a young group for sure but I think it’s a solid group of guys who are of high character and there are some skillsets that will mesh together with some time to grow.

The more I think about it, the more I’m okay with the Blake signing. I think Jon underestimates him slightly and I certainly don’t think he’s a superstar but he can play at this level. I think they envision Jack playing the 1 and the 2 and Roy playing all three. I think there will be times when you see Blake, Jack and Roy out there together because Martell and Travis still have the tendency to float out of it mentally.

I guess Jones is a wildcard because I believe he’s only 26 but my vision of him is some washed up old timer. I don’t know a thing about him only that he didn’t play much at all for Phoenix.


I'm okay with the Blake signing because the 3rd year is a team option. I still don't think we really needed him, but at least it didn't screw up our cap space. My only concern is that Jack is the kind of guy who plays better if he's not looking over his shoulder and worrying about his minutes getting stolen. That seems to be a huge problem for Ridnour in Seattle. Otherwise, I'm fine with the signing. Blake is a high character guy who will work hard and bring some leadership, and he's a better 3-point shooter than Jack. The depth will be nice, because I wouldn't want to give big minutes to Sergio if Jack got hurt. I could see us using Jack and Blake to close out games - both those guys probably have a little better mental toughness than Travis or James Jones.

Remember when Walt Williams played for Portland? That's what Jones reminds me of. Decent sized 3-point specialist, looks kind of awkward running the floor. Not terrible, but not really great either. Can play 20 or 30 minutes without really hurting your team. He'll occasionally block a shot. He's a reasonably priced stop-gap for two years until Travis or Martell develop or we sign a big free agent.

Our roster is now almost entirely devoid of idiots. Miles needs to retire.

Blazers Sign Outlaw

Travis Outlaw re-signed with the Blazers for approximately $12 million over 3 seasons. No word yet on whether the final year is a team option. Either way, I think this is a fantastic signing, especially considering the kind of money Jason Kapono made this offseason.

The Blazers' Point Guard Situation - Who Will Be Traded?

Jarret Jack started 79 games for the Blazers last season, averaging 12 points and 5.3 assists while shooting 45% from the field. Jack is 23 years old, and last season was his second in the NBA.

Jack's backup was 21-year-old Sergio Rodriguez, who the Blazers drafted in the first round of the 2006 draft. Sergio showed some potential as a rookie, and has become a fan favorite.

Late in the first round of the 2007 draft, the Blazers traded up to draft Peteri Koponen, a young Finnish point guard. Koponen had a decent showing in summer league, playing primarily off the ball because the summer league roster was loaded with point guards. He's probably a better shooter than Jack or Sergio. The Blazers will keep Koponen in Europe for at least another year.

In the second round of the 2007 draft, the Blazers selected Taurean Green, a smallish point guard and two-time national champion at Florida. Green was scrappy in summer league, and shot the ball well from deep. However, his passing, ability to run an NBA team, and defensive quickness are all suspect. Despite these flaws, the Blazers have reportedly signed Green to a guaranteed contract for the upcoming season.

Apparently feeling that four point guards weren't enough, last weekend the Blazers signed Steve Blake to a 2-year contract with a team option for the 3rd year.

Although Pritchard has indicated that Jack may see some minutes at the off guard position, and Koponen will spend next season in Europe, I find it hard to believe the Blazers want to carry four point guards next year. I also think it's unlikely that all three of Jack, Sergio and Blake factor into the team's long-term plan. Pritchard may have a plan, but to me this situation looks like a big mess. A trade seems probable.

I think Jarrett Jack has the highest trade value of any of our point guards. Subjectivly measuring the trade value of the league's point guards based on production, age, character and salary, I'd rank them something like this:

1. Chris Paul
2. Deron Williams
3. Steve Nash
4. Gilbert Arenas
5. Tony Parker
6. Jason Kidd
7. Chauncey Billups
8. Kirk Hinrich
9. Baron Davis
10. Mike Conley
11. TJ Ford
12. Raymond Felton
13. Jason Terry
14. Andre Miller
15. Mo Williams
16. Acie Law
17. Mike Bibby
18. Randy Foye
19. Stephon Marbury

Jarrett Jack falls in somewhere around #20-24, in a group that includes Luke Ridnour, Devin Harris, Monta Ellis, Jose Calderon and maybe Rafer Alston, Jameer Nelson, Marcus Williams and Rajon Rondo.

There are around 7 teams for whom Jack would be a significant upgrade at point guard:
1. Cleveland
2. Boston
3. Miami (Williams is aging and oft-injured)
4. LA Clippers
5. LA Lakers (unless Crittenton turns out to be good)
6. Denver
7. Indiana

Plus a few others that have mediocre or unproven talent:
1. Atlanta
2. Houston
3. Boston
4. Minnesota
5. Seattle

So there are at least a handful of teams out there who should be willing to part with something of value to get Jack.

It's more difficult to measure Sergio's trade value. There were allegedly inquiries about him from multiple teams last season. Some enthusiastic Blazer fans think he's the next Steve Nash. After watching him in summer league, I'd take the first decent offer that came along. Sergio makes some highlight-quality plays, but he can't shoot, he doesn't play good defense, and his decision-making in the half court is often questionable. In the summer league game against the Suns, he made very poor decisions on two plays late in the game. On the first, after Sergio launched a long jumper from the top of the circle and Phoenix grabbed the long rebound, Sergio's man took off down the floor. Instead of hustling back to prevent the layup, Sergio ran forward to try for a steal - and was unsuccessful. On another possession late in the game, Sergio dribbled the shot clock down under 5 seconds and, instead of penetrating or entering the ball into the post, launched a step-back jumper, which he missed. These type of mental errors are costly. With his lack of athleticism and shooting ability, Sergio will have to become a flawless decision-maker if he's going to be a quality starting point guard. I'm not sure he's going to get there.

Blake, Koponen and Green have little to no trade value. Green and Koponen were late draft picks, and didn't blow anybody away in summer league. If anybody really wanted Blake, they could have offered him the MLE.

So I'm looking for Jack or Sergio to be moved, if not before the season, then at least within the next year. One incentive for the Blazers to get rid of Jack is that his contract expires in 2009. If he's the starting point guard, he's going to command a contract in the $6-$8 million range. Even as an unsigned free agent, he would count for around $6 million against the Blazers' cap that summer. Sergio will still be on his rookie contract in 2009, and will only use $1.9 million of cap space. Steve Blake's team option could be declined in order to preserve cap space.

Vegas! Part Deux

Yes we've returned from Vegas and assimilating back into the real world has been difficult. I arrived home at 3:30am on Monday only to find my 3-yr old in my spot in bed. I squeezed my way into bed for a quick rest before work. However my 10-month old had other ideas and woke up around 5:00am ready to play. He had some breakfast and was ready for the world...I was not though.

Then last night, he woke up again, this time at 2:15 and stayed awake until about 4:30 (as did I) before falling asleep. I've been at work both days, physically anyway, but my brain is tapioca and several people have commented on my barely opened, extremely bloodshot eyes. I do not look good.

But the trip to Vegas was fun. We met up with old friends and had a good time watching and playing basketball and cheaply gambling a small chunk of our paychecks away.

Here are some of the non-NBA summer league highlights:
  • Pierre Lawrence - our buddy Kevin (a non-drinker, non-smoker, father of two little girls) was approached by the quintessential Vegas chick on Thursday night. She had tight pants, a tight, low-cut shirt, a cigarette in one hand and one of those giant fruity drinks in the novelty cups in the other. She asked Kevin if his name was Pierre from the Mirage. Jon laughed directly into her face and I claimed that his name was Jacque but thus, Pierre Lawrence was born at the Stratosphere.

  • Bill Russell's minivan. I don't know why this tickled me so much but to see one of the NBA's all time greats parked in a modest minivan right next to me in a near-empty parking lot is something I won't soon forget. Russell seemed like a fun guy, he spent most of the game laughing and joking with his friend and wife while watching the Celts. I'm dying to know what was on the radio in his minivan.

  • Travel nightmares - all of us had trouble arriving and leaving Vegas. My flight out of Portland was delayed for an hour and a half because of a thunder and lightning storm directly over PDX. I was originally supposed to arrive into Vegas a little after 1:00am but didn't get there until after 2:00. Matt nearly missed his flight from Eugene because the flight from Phoenix to Eugene was 3 hours late. He finally arrived at the Stratosphere around 3:15am. Both Jon and Kevin/Pierre were delayed leaving Dallas and Tulsa respectively. Returning to our homes was brutal but again, Matt had the worst of it. His plane was just about ready to leave when it blew a tire all over the runway and had to return to the tarmac. The debris on the runway caused a backup of jets including mine, delaying my takeoff by about 40 minutes (I was already 30 minutes delayed leaving so this put me a good hour and 15 minutes behind schedule). I finally took off and arrived into Portland at about 2:45 and arrived home about 3:30. Sadly, Matt's flight did not leave and he was forced to stay another night in Vegas and arrived at his hotel at 3:30am. On a positive note, he did get to talk with Joel "Lunch Bucket" Freeland who was hopeful of playing for Portland but not optimistic after an underwhelming summer league.

  • Our intense games of 2 on 2 on Friday. And by intense I mean lazy and foul-ridden with missed shots galore. It was fun and we wore each other out. My wife has taken to calling me Uncle Rico after the uncle in Napolean Dynamite whom claims his high school football team could have taken state had the coach played him at quarterback. I must admit, some of the similarities are there.

  • Robert Swift looks like he got lost on his way to Lollapalooza 1996. He has a gnatty red ponytail, tattoos covering most of his arms and holes in his face from all the piercings. He just looks slightly out of place on an NBA bench.

  • I got $20 up on $2 roulette but lost it all within an hour. It was fun and infinitely more enjoyable pressing buttons on a slot machine and losing money, $0.5 at a time.
  • I loved the set up of gyms in Vegas. Despite the fact that the Thomas and Mack Center stairs were a nightmare to scale (Bill Russell had no problems getting up them but I did) the set up allowed visitors to easily go from gym to gym during timeouts, halftimes and blowouts. The staggered starts meant that when one game finished you could bolt over to the other gym to catch the last quarter of the other game. When that game finished you could back over to the other gym in time to catch the start of that game.

I will be back with some player/team evaluations later.

Monday, July 16, 2007

VEGAS!

We're back from our Vegas trip, during which we failed to enter a single blog post. We had a good time, and caught our fill of summer league action. A few non-performance-related highlights:

- Bill Russell drives a minivan. During the Seattle game on Friday, we sat about six seats away from the great Bill Russell. We didn't try to talk to him, but Mark snapped a picture of him exiting the stands after the game (see below). When we returned to our car after the game, Russell was sitting in the driver's seat of the vehicle next to us - a somewhat shabby-looking Toyota minivan. I gave him a wave, which he did not reciprocate. A middle-aged white guy hopped in Russell's passenger seat, and they pulled out.




- LeBron James sat courtside at the same game on Friday. In stark contrast to Russell, LeBron had a full 5-member posse, and exited the game through the tunnel rather than fight through the crowds. I overheard a young autograph-seeker later saying that LeBron had walked through the lobby at some point, but was so fully surrounded by posse members that the kids couldn't get near him.


- Chris Mullin was sitting 15 or 20 rows up from us on Friday, near the aisle where he was easily accessible to fans. As we exited the arena, Mullin was in a conversation with some front-office-type guy that I didn't recognize. This did not deter a random middle-aged man wearing a fanny pack. Fanny Pack shoved his head in to Mullin's conversation and announced: "Mr. Mullin! Mr. Mullin! I used to carry your bags at the Westin!" To his credit, Mullin handled the situation quite graciously, and feigned some interest in Fanny Pack's story.

- Daniel Artest, Ron's little brother, played for the Kings' summer league squad. We sat directly behind the King's bench on Saturday during the Kings/Rockets game. I couldn't stop watching Artest during warmups and time-outs (unfortunately, he never made it into the game). His face looks strikingly similar to Ron's, only fatter. His physique is like a shorter Tractor Traylor. Daniel Artest would have looked out of place in the layup line of a Division-1 college team. His presence on an NBA roster (even summer league) was ridiculous. He missed just about every shot he put up during warm-ups (although he worked harder than anyone else on the floor, breaking a substantial sweat). He did manage a two-hand dunk off of two feet with no run-up, no small feat for a guy his size. Artest was enthusiastic during time-outs, shouting the loudest "defense" of anyone on the team as the huddle broke. If the fat guy from the And-1 tour (Escalade is his nickname - I had to do a bit of research there) were to retire, I could see Artest making a run at that job.



-The woman sitting a few seats down from me let out a scream of pure joy when the Blazers finally defeated the Suns on Saturday. I watched several of these summer league games without once thinking to look at the scoreboard. The outcome of summer league games is, in my mind, absolutely meaningless. The same woman made repeated attempts to present Sergio "Spanish Chocolate" Rodriguez with a gift of red, black and silver M&Ms she had special ordered for him. At one point she cornered LaMarcus Aldridge (not in uniform Saturday), who agreed to give them to Sergio. Some Blazer staffer took the M&Ms to the locker room after the game.