Impact of the Steve Francis Buy-Out

The Blazers bought out Steve Francis, allegedly for around $30 million. Some Blazer fans are mad because (a) the Blazers didn't manage to talk Francis down very much, and (b) $30 million is a ton of money to pay somebody to play against the Blazers. I can't really refute either of these arguments, but it looks to me like the Blazers really didn't want Z-Bo or Steve Francis anywhere near the team next year.

Here is my calculation of how the Francis buy-out will affect the Blazers' salary cap:

Francis was owed $33.6 million over the next two years. I'll estimate the buy-out amount to be $30.5 million. The $30.5 million will hit our cap in the next two seasons in the same proportion Francis' salary would have been paid under his contract - around 48.8% this year and 51.2% next year. But we also get a set-off for his new contract. If Francis signs with the Clippers for $6 million for two years, the Blazers' cap liability will be reduced in each of the next two seasons by 50% of ($3 million minus the league minimum salary). This probably works out to about $1.1 million in cap reduction for each of the next two seasons. So Francis will hit Portland's cap for approximately $13.8 million in 2007-08 and $14.5 million in 2008-09.

The buy-out saves the Blazers at least $5 million over the next two years, and possibly as much as $10 million (because of luxury tax), depending on the Blazers' final cap figure. There is no chance that the Blazers will get under the cap before 2009, but Paul Allen saves a few bucks.

Jason Quick had a note in his blog that Portland has negotiated a 50% offset on Francis. I'm not sure what this means... but perhaps the Blazers are going to get a slightly larger offset than the one I calculated.

Greg Oden to shut it down

As it's been reported by several outlets, Greg Oden has decided to shut it down for the summer and get that much needed tonsillectomy. I'm disappointed that we won't get to see him in Vegas but I can't blame him. I think the tonsils and fatigue have taken a huge toll on him as evidenced by his play in the first two games. If you read Jason Quick's summer league report you get a good view of his tonsil problems.

I think this is a wise move by Portland to shut him down. Let the guy rest for a few weeks and recuperate. He's been going 100 miles an hour for about the past month, flying to Portland, Ohio, New York and elsewhere. We don't need to burn the kid out before he even suits up in a real uniform for Portland.

I'm hoping Greg eats some ice cream, relaxes and gets healthy so he can play at 100% the moment the season starts. We saw glimpses of what he can do but we still have yet to see Oden play at 100% percent. He either had broken wrist or tonsils so swollen that only a passageway "the size of a green grape was evident" (that's some in-depth...and disgusting, reporting by Quick) so there's no reason to push it. That he was even out there is a testiment to his committment and drive. I have a funny feeling that if Zach or Darius had even the sniffles they would have begged out of playing...but not partying in Vegas.

This decision now opens the door for others like Zenden Hamilton (I'm glad I paid $51 bucks to see Zen), Joel Freeland and others.

Can't blame Oden for taking a rest, if anyone has earned a break, it's him.

Summer League Game 2 - player observations

Martell Webster - His ballhandling is a disaster, and he missed most of his 3s. But I also saw some good things from Martell. He had a couple of athletic steals, plus a near-steal that he booted out of bounds. He had a tremendous offensive rebound and putback - his rebounding was very good again this game. I've been impressed with Martell's effort so far in summer league. On one play, he ran out for a breakaway layup, then sprinted back defensively to contest a shot at the other end. Martell still needs to figure out his role (he will have to get his points by moving without the ball - and maybe by developing a post-up game?), but at least the effort is there.

Greg Oden - Oden's post game is very effective when he can create a shot on his initial lunge toward the basket. If he has to reverse his pivot or fade away, its just ugly. On defense, he has a lot to learn about position. The offensive player can draw a foul on Oden every time by shielding the ball and leaping into him. Oden needs to establish position early to take a charge, or position his body so that there is no contact and take a swipe at the ball. LaMarcus Aldridge is starting to become very adept at this. Oden seems to be a favorite target of the officials so far - he's been called for a ton of cheap fouls, especially on offense. We saw glimpses of the Oden/Aldridge high-low game. This will be devastating in the future.

LaMarcus Aldridge - I'm afraid he's playing too well and won't be available as a sleeper in my fantasy basketball league. Other than that, there's nothing bad to say about this guy. He's been flat-out terrific at both ends of the court.

Sergio Rodriguez - His lack of outside shooting is crippling his game. If he could shoot like JJ Barea, he'd be fantastic. Barea is smaller, slower, and lacks Sergio's wizardry with the ball. But Barea outplayed Sergio because he plays under control and can light it up from the outside.

Joel Freeland - He scored a couple of times. Seems to have a decent skill set for a young big man. We lose a ton of shotblocking and mobility on defense when he checks in.

Josh McRoberts - Is this guy still on the team? I didn't notice him at all this game.

Taurean Green- an unimpressive outing for a guy fighting to make the roster. He turned the ball over too much and didn't shoot well.

Terrance Green- He actually got on the court near the end of the game. Terrance was my teammate for a week at Rip City Hoop Camp in Portland in 1993 or '94. Our team won the camp championship.

Summer League Game 2 - Observations

Greg Oden's second game was quite a bit better than his first. 13 points, five boards, four blocks and "only" nine fouls. Oden is obviously tired and out of shape but still managed a few ohmygosh moments, including a ferocious dunk over Pops Mensah-Bonsu where he drew is first NBA "T" for hanging on the rim. I think it was worth it.

Some other points from day 2.

• I know that many of the players are trying to earn their way onto rosters, but I have no idea about the refs. Are they training them to be the next generation of officials? All I know is, the third quarter of the Portland/Dallas game was unwatchable because of all the fouls. There was a segment of about four minutes where there was a foul at every end of the floor...and I don't think I'm exaggerating either.
• LaMarcus Aldridge has been dynamite in the two games. He runs well, has a great outside shot and just looks tougher all the way around. He's definitely the leader of the summer league team and appears to be responding to the role. I loved his first move of the game yesterday. He caught the ball on the block and swung the ball through about an inch from Mensah-Bonsu's nose. Powered his way into the paint and knocked Mensah-Bonsu off balance and then rose up for about a four foot fadeaway. Unfortunately, he missed the shot, but it was a great move and great shot that just didn't go. I get the feeling the Aldridge is just scratching the surface of his abilities
• The Blazers offense reminds me of the Mo Cheeks coached/Damon Stoudamire run teams of a few years back. So many high screens, so little action for anyone else. Aldridge and Oden are great screeners and Sergio Rodriguez is quick, but I'd like to see Portland do more of the high low action with Aldridge high looking for Oden low. It's unstoppable. If this is the offense that McMillan plans on running, they're better of with Brandon Roy at the point because he makes things happen with good decision making.
• I know they only got like a week or so to practice, but I think Portland's coaching staff could have come up with a more imaginative offense. The high screen every time down the floor often wastes a ton of time and Sergio makes a good decision with the pass about 1 out of every 3 trips down the floor. He cannot be counted on to run a team for 35 minutes a night.
• Martell Webster, despite the tough looking new 'do, is terrible. One of the worst ballhandler's I've ever seen. Literally has no left hand whatsoever. There was one particularly bad segment in the third quarter when he got the ball on the left hand wing, nearly lost it, bounced away from his defender (sort of), dribbled left and shot a disasterous fadeaway that led to a quick Mavs dunk the other way. Moments later he came off a high screen dribbling left, the post defender showed and Martell instantly lost the ball trying to spin away. The turnover led to another Mavs bucket. He really needs to step up or he could find himself in the "D" league again trying to earn a spot back in Portland or the NBA.
• Portland's guard play in general has been terrible. Bad offense, bad defense and bad passing. As I said, Sergio's success to failure ratio is not good and Martell is just so limited on both ends of the floor. Taurean Green has played admirably as the back-up and has not been clearly outplayed by Sergio. The other wings have not impressed me very much. Having Brandon Roy would help considerably...as would the addition of Travis Outlaw.
• I think Jarrett Jack should be feeling a lot better about his standing in Portland's rotation after the first two days. For some reason, Portland fan's love Sergio...for no real reason. Fans are dumb sometimes.
• Oden and Aldridge are definitely twin towers. Once they figure out how to work together and how to best complement each other...look out. They're both long and I think they're both very committed to basketball, winning and excellence. Those three things alone will take them far in this league.
• Oden is raw offensively. He'll rely on brute force and strength for much of his points early in his career. He's more Shaq than Tim Duncan in that regard. I'm hopeful that his post moves develop and he learns some counters to defensive positioning. He had a couple of ferocious dunks yesterday but probably the most impressive move was when he caught the ball no the left block, took a dribble to the middle, faked like he was going to spin towards the baseline and then finished a pretty left-handed jump hook. That the move was against Nick Fazekas is not lost on me but still, it was a very promising move.