Oden in Pioneer Square

My nephew is in the front row, right behind the microphone stand. He scored an autograph.

------------Update-------------------

My nephew is interviewed by KATU, declaring Oden to be "really good at basketball"

http://www.katu.com/sports/8250267.html (click on the video link at the beginning of the text)

Summer League Roster

----------------Update---------------------

Koponen has been added to the summer league roster. Speculation - could Fernandez be added after the NY and Phoenix trades are finalized??

---------------------------------------------
#0 Taurean Green#2 Josh McRoberts#6 Stefano Mancinelli#8 Martell Webster#11 Sergio Rodriguez#12 LaMarcus Aldridge#18 Rick Apodaca#31 Zendon Hamilton#41 Joel Freeland#42 Mo Charlo#52 Greg Oden

http://blog.oregonlive.com/blazers/

Looks like 7 players of interest will be playing:

Green, McRoberts, Webster, Sergio, Aldridge, Freeland and Oden.

This will be our first look at the Aldridge/Oden tandem. I'm ready to go to Vegas.

Roster Analysis

I’d like to think Pritchard can make another move or two before the season starts, but let’s take a look at what the Blazers have right now:

12 Guaranteed Contracts:

C – Greg Oden, Joel Pryzbilla, Raef Lafrentz
PF – LaMarcus Aldridge, Channing Frye
SF – James Jones, Darius Miles
SG – Brandon Roy, Martell Webster
PG – Jarrett Jack, Sergio Rodriguez, Steve Francis

2 Euros Selected in the 1st round:

PG – Petteri Koponen
SG - Rudy Fernandez

2 Second Round Picks:

PF- Josh McRoberts
PG – Taurean Green

3 Free Agents:

SF - Ime Udoka, Travis Outlaw
C - Jamal Magloire

This gives us a total of 19 players.

Jamal Magloire will not be re-signed. Rudy Fernandez will stay in Europe. That give us 17.

We won’t see both Koponen and Green on the roster this year. Either Koponen will stay in Europe or Green will be cut. That narrows it to 16.

Reportedly, we will try to buy out Steve Francis. Assuming that happens, we’d be down to 15.

I will be shocked if McRoberts doesn’t make the roster. I think he was a steal. I also think we should re-sign Ime (2 years, $2 million per) and Outlaw (4 years, $5 million per). We don’t want to play James Jones 40 minutes a night.

So my opening day depth chart looks like:

C- Oden/Pryzbilla/Lafrentz
PF- Aldridge/Outlaw/Frye/McRoberts
SF- Jones/Udoka/Miles
SG- Roy/Webster
PG- Jack/Sergio/Green

I see two serious weaknesses here: (i) youth, and (ii) lack of talent at the small forward position. Ten of our fifteen players are 23 or younger (actually 9, Frye just turned 24), including at least four starters. All that youth is great for the future of the franchise, but it will be tough to win a lot of games in the short term. This problem will take care of itself over the next few years.

The Blazers won’t be a contender until they upgrade at the small forward position. If Travis Outlaw or Martell Webster were to make huge strides over the next couple of seasons, that would work. Rudy Fernandez might be able to start alongside Roy in a year or two. But most likely, we’ll need to acquire another player through a trade or free agency. Our chances of bringing someone in this year fell significantly when we traded Z-Bo to New York. I’d like to see us dangle our tradeable non-core assets (Frye, Webster, Sergio, Fernandez, Koponen, Outlaw) in hopes of landing a veteran small forward that could help us right away (but young enough to still be a contributor four or five years down the road.) Rashard Lewis would be ideal, as would Tayshaun Prince. Gerald Wallace or Andres Nocioni could work.

Draft Thoughts - Around the League

- The Warriors, by sending Jason Richardson to the Bobcats for Brandan Wright, traded themselves back into the lottery next year. Wright is years aways from being an impact player. On the other hand, Charlotte took a real step toward being competitive. Richardson and Gerald Wallace would make a nice wing tandem if they could re-sign Wallace. If they want to sign and trade Wallace, KP should be calling.

- The Knicks already had the league's most dysfunctional roster heading into the draft. Trading for Zach Randolph didn't help. Randolph and Curry will form the slowest, worst-defending post tandem in the league - and they're both under contract until 2011, as is Jamal Crawford. Any chance the Knicks had of cleaning house to land LeBron, Carmelo or D-Wade as a free agent down the line is now gone.

- The Celtics will be fun to watch, and will contend in the East for the next couple of years. I like the core of Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Al Jefferson and Rajon Rondo. But they're not goood enough to win a championship, and Allen doesn't have a whole lot left in the tank.

- Seattle's selection of Jeff Green doesn't make sense if they're planning to re-sign Rashard Lewis. I might run Lewis, Green and Durant out there at the 2/3/4 spots, but I've never seen a lineup like that before.

- Atlanta managed to not screw up their two lottery picks. Some have criticized the Horford pick, because Atlanta already has a ton of forwards. But none of Atlanta's other forwards can score in the post. That's like criticizing Portland for taking Oden because we already have Pryzbilla.

- The Lakers made no trades and drafted Javaris Crittenton. They're going nowhere.

Will the Blazers Regret Taking Oden?

This lady thinks they should have picked Durant:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/27/AR2007062702924.html?hpid=sec-sports

"He's here, his name is Kevin Durant, and if the Portland Trail Blazers pass on him in the NBA draft in favor of Greg Oden, they'll rue it. Durant is a player for a new era, while a center like Oden, good as he might be, is a dinosaur by comparison. Draft Oden, and you get a guy who can play one position. Draft Durant, and you get a guy who can play five."

If Durant drops 50 on us every time we play against him for the next 15 years, we might regret not taking him. But it won't be because he can play multiple positions. That's just stupid. Does it really add a lot of value to the Sonics that you could roll out your 6'9" scoring machine as a point guard? If you could clone Kevin Durant, and have five of him playing all five positions, that would be helpful. If you just have one, then he can only play one position at a time.

Also, if dominant post players are "dinosaurs" why does either Shaq or Tim Duncan win the title every year?

If the Blazers Buy Out Steve Francis, Could They Sign Rashard Lewis?

No.

According to Larry Koon's exhaustive NBA salary cap FAQ (available here: http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#1), if the Blazers bought out Steve Francis' contract, the total amount of the buyout would count against the salary cap spread over the remaining term of the contract. Francis has two years left on his deal, at $33.5 million. If he agreed to a buyout for $20 million, he would count against Portland's cap at $10 million for each of the next two seasons. Such a buy-out would save Paul Allen some salary and some luxury tax, but would not get the Blazers under the salary cap (by my calculation, the Blazers' cap total would be around $57 million if they renounced Travis Outlaw, Ime Udoka and Jamal Magloire, and Francis agreed to a $20 million buy-out - the NBA salary cap was $53 million last year). So even with a buy-out, the Blazers will not be able to sign a free agent for more than the mid-level exception.

I'm making the assumption here that Francis isn't going to take less than $20 million. Unless his market value is $13.5 million (or more) over two seasons, he would lose money by taking a $20 million buy-out.

From Larry Koon's FAQ:

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#59

How do buy-outs affect a team's salary cap?

The agreed-upon buy-out amount (see question number 59) is included in the team salary instead of the salary called for in the contract. If the player had more than one season left on his contract, then the buy-out money is distributed among those seasons in proportion to the original salary. For example, say a player had three seasons remaining on his contract, with salaries of $10 million, $11 million and $12 million. The player and team agree to a buyout of $15 million. The $15 million is therefore charged to the team salary over the three seasons. Since the original contract had $33 million left to be paid, and $10 million is 30.3% of $33 million, 30.3% of the $15 million buyout, or $4.545 million, is included in the team salary in the first season following the buyout. Likewise, 33.33% of $15 million, or $5 million, is included in the team salary in the second season, and 36.36% of $15 million, or $5.455 million, is included in the team salary in the third season.The distribution of the buy-out money is a matter of individual negotiation. Changing the number of years in which the money is paid does not change the number of years in which the team's team salary is charged. In the above example in which the player's contract is bought out with three seasons remaining, the buyout amount is always charged to the team salary over three seasons. It does not matter if the player is actually paid in a lump sum or over 20 years (a spread provision).

Proud Day for Chicago Bulls

I'm glad we had the #1 pick and not #9.

More Trades - James Jones

Update- the "other trade" is the acquisition of James Jones from the Suns, for a trade exception we picked up in the NY deal. Pretty weak.


From the Blazer post-draft press conference:

Pritchard says there is another deal pending, to be finalized in the next 7-10 days, involving a small forward. The Z-Bo trade has to be finalized before this next deal can go down. Pritchard says he'll probably get fined for talking about it.

Also, Demetrus Nichols was traded to the Knicks for a future 2nd-round pick.

Kevin Pritchard on KXL

----Update----

The Blazers need to finalize the NY trade before they can announce another trade in the works. Stay tuned....
_________________

Pritchard is explaining the ZBO trade-

"We felt like going in a different direction."

When asked about Francis:

"He's on our team - we look forward to those guys coming."

"We're excited about the trade. We think it helped us - gave us some cap relief down the line. It gives us flexibility to bring in a really talented free agent down the line."

Sounds like this trade was just a pure salary dump. I can't believe this is the best we could do.

NY trade update

Jason Quick reports the Z-Bo/Francis trade hasn't been finalized.

I'd back out while we still can.

Truehoop says this regarding a possible Steve Francis buyout:

"I have the suspicion that Steve Francis will never play in a Portland uniform, which is also what Blazer broadcaster Brian Wheeler is reportedly saying too. If he is bought out, Portland could get cap relief equivalent to half of whatever salary he might earn, if any, from another team."

If Francis is worth $8 million on the open market (that seems generous) that only gives Portland $4 million in cap relief. That doesn't leave us any room to sign a marquee small forward.

Dave at Blazersedge.com says this:
FYI if you're thinking contract buyout, the official rule is that the team and player can negotiate a buyout. It's up to them how much it's for. The buyout amount agreed upon counts against the cap. If Francis is willing to take a lot less money then a buyout makes sense. Otherwise there's little difference between buying him out or having him on the team. Well...except for the locker room cancer thing.

http://www.blazersedge.com/

Either way, we're not getting much cap relief this year.

I'm sorry to see Fred Jones go. He had a great attitude, he really wanted to play here, and I thought he was our best option as a backup to Brandon Roy.

Perhaps KP has a sign-and-trade in mind, but it doesn't look good.

2nd Round - McRoberts, Green, Nichols

McRoberts is a great value in the second round. Nichols and Green had nice showings at the pre-draft camp, but will face an uphill battle to make the roster.

I can't help but think the Blazers will be making another significant move before the season starts.

Portland acquiring #30?

--Update--- Petteri Koponen goes #30. The O-live Blazers blog says he's a Blazer.

Seattle takes Carl Landry at 31. Never seen him play.

Congratulations to Aaron Brooks going to Houston at #26!

Blazers pick up the Suns #24 pick - Francis buyout?

--Update-- Bucher reports the Blazers have acquired the #24 pick from Phoenix for cash -- we're on the clock now.


I don't get the Z-Bo trade. By itself, the move doesn't make sense. If we wanted a salary dump, wouldn't Boston have traded us Theo Ratliff and a young guy or a future pick for Z-Bo?

Has Francis already agreed to a buyout?

If Francis never goes on the books, can the Blazers get under the cap?

Here's my calculation of our salaries for 07-08:

Raef - $11.8
Darius - 8.3
Joel - 5.7
LaMarcus - 4.3
Webster - 3.0
Roy - 2.9
Jack - 1.2
Sergio - 1
Frye - 2.5

Total (without Francis): $40.5 million
With Francis: $57 million

If we were able to buy out Francis, maybe we have the room under the cap to sign a Rashard Lewis or a Gerald Wallace???

This calculation doesn't take into account Oden ($ 5 mil???) or Travis Outlaw.

ZBO to NY a Done Deal - WTF???

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/nba_experts/post/News-from-the-NBA-draft;_ylt=Aqbehwb1AgXTc_tmy9Zs2QW8vLYF?urn=nba,37854

Adrian Wojnarowski reports Portland has traded Z-Bo, Dickau and Fred Jones to the Knicks for Steve Francis and Channing Frye.

Frye averaged 12 a game in a decent rookie season, then 9.5 last year. Francis is 30 years old, and his career has tailed off considerably the last two seasons. Francis has two years left on his contract at $17 million per.

If this report is accurate, I hope there's something else going on here.

Greg Oden is a Blazer - Draft Analysis

Two interesting developments so far:

1. Seattle and Boston pulled the trigger on Ray Allen for Szczerbiak, Delonte West and the #5 pick. Then Seattle took Jeff Green. Seattle must be planning for life without Rashard Lewis, because small forward is the natural position for Green, Durant and Lewis. I could see playing two of these guys together, but not all three. Lewis for Z-Bo seems like it makes sense for Seattle now...

2. Milwaukee took Yi Jianlian at #6, despite Yi's refusal to work out for them. Yi, Bogut and Villanueva make for an interesting post trio.

As of pick #13, Al Thornton is still on the board. I'd like to see him wind up a Blazer.

Email update

"Jason Quick is reporting from NY…I missed it, but they just said that Quick told them that Oden is the pick. He’s also reporting that Ray Allen to Bos for #5 pick is “very real”. Not sure if there’s anyone else involved. Quick broke the Martell deal back in that draft."

Interesting stuff here. Seattle should be trying to move Ray Allen for young talent. Ray has about a 2-year window left. Seattle can't win that soon.

Ray Allen and Paul Pierce would be the best wing tandem in the League. Along with Rondo and Jefferson, Boston would be a contender for the junior varsity (Eastern Conference) crown.

Who would Seattle take at #5? They have two decent-to-mediocre point guards in Ridnour and Watson. If they draft Durant and can re-sign Rashard, they'll have two very tall, high-scoring small forwards. They have about 7 really bad centers and an average power forward in Chris Wilcox.

--- update --- Hoopshype.com reports this deal would include Szczerbiak and Delonte West, giving the Sonics a load of wing players. Perhaps they's take a look at Yi, B. Wright or Noah at #5?------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If Ray Allen is on the trading block, the Jazz should be calling Seattle every day. With Williams, Boozer and Okur, Utah is one superstar wing player away from a championship. Allen is a perfect fit. Would any Seattle fan be interested in Kirilenko and Paul Milsap for Allen and Sene?

Kirilenko had a terrible year, but he's been terrific in the past. He's only 26. On the Sonics, Kirilenko could move back to power forward and away from the vengeful eye of Jerry Sloan. Milsap could give the Sonics a ton of good minutes off the bench.

If the Sonics could re-sign Lewis, they could throw out a lineup of RidWat, Lewis, Durant, Kirilenko, and Wilcox. That's a ton of length and rebounding, with Lewis and Durant providing the scoring punch.

-- Update --
Truehoop contradicts my source, saying Quick doesn't know who the Blazers will take.

"However, the Oregonian's Jason Quick is certainly on the very short list of people who might actually have some unique first-hand knowledge of the team's thinking, and he just told me that he really does not know what they'll do. A little intrigue!"

http://myespn.go.com/nba/truehoop

Rumor - Randolph to NY

Hoopshype is reporting that the Blazers and Knicks have discussed a trade that would send Z-Bo to New York for Channing Frye and other pieces (reports vary). In theory, trading with Isaiah Thomas is a good idea. Unfortunately, there are very few desireable players on the Knicks' roster. In fact, David Lee is the only guy on the roster I'd be interested in. Frye had a promising rookie year, then followed it up with a rotten sophomore effort. Meanwhile, Lee morphed into a rebounding machine.

Any deal with NY needs to include Lee and either a future first rounder plus a mildly bad contract, or Lee plus an expiring contract (if NY has any). Otherwise, the Blazers can, and should, do better.

Top 20 Draft Prospects

The following list ranks my top 20 prospects in the 2007 NBA Draft. This is not a mock draft. I am not predicting where any particular player will be drafted and I am not considering any particular team’s needs.

1. Greg Oden.

1a. Kevin Durant.

My thoughts on the Oden/Durant debate can be found here:
http://returntoblazermania.blogspot.com/2007/06/oden-or-durant.html

I give Oden a very slight edge because his interior defense and rebounding will give his team a chance to compete for championships. I think Kevin Durant will become one of the NBA’s all-time greatest players. But dominant big men win championships.

3. Al Horford. Horford is an obvious choice at #3. He grabbed nearly 10 rebounds a game, a remarkable stat given that he played only 27 minutes a night and had to compete with Joakim Noah for those boards. Horford has an above average back-to-the-basket post game and a nice midrange jumper. Horford’s ceiling is somewhere below Elton Brand, and his floor is somewhere above Udonis Haslem. He has all-star potential, helped by the likelihood that he’ll end up in the Eastern Conference.

4. Yi Jianlian. For all the talk of depth in this draft, the talent drops steeply after Oden/Durant, and drops again after Horford. Yi is the biggest wildcard in this draft. He possesses a rare combination of size, skill and athleticism. He will likely take a little longer to adjust to the NBA than many of his fellow draftees, but he should develop into a solid contributor who can score going to the basket or from the perimeter.

5. Corey Brewer. Brewer is widely regarded as the best perimeter defender in the draft. On offense, he can do a little of everything, and excels in transition. Brewer will be a lockdown defender who can score an efficient 15 points a game. I’d compare him to a higher-scoring Bruce Bowen, but let’s see Brewer endanger a few careers with cheap shots before we get all carried away.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdxXvkMB6gA

6. Mike Conley Jr. Conley performed impressively in his freshman season, carrying the Buckeyes to the final game of the NCAA tournament. Oden logged 20 minutes or less in OSU’s tournament games against Georgetown and Tennessee, leaving Conley to shoulder the load. Conley displayed remarkable quickness and a knack for getting to the foul line. He’s a solid distributor and penetrator. His outside shot needs work. Conley isn’t as good as Chris Paul or Deron Williams, but he will be an above average starting point guard in a year or two.

7. Al Thornton. Thornton has the attitude, athleticism and skill set to be a proficient scorer. He attacks the basket like a maniac, and can also shoot the 3. He’s ready to play now. This is just awesome:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBBBw3OoFrQ

8. Jeff Green. Green will be a nice role player. He’s not going to be a huge scorer or rebounder in the NBA, but he has a high basketball IQ and he know how to win. He’s an excellent passer and team player.

9. Spencer Hawes. This year’s number one big white stiff! Actually, Hawes moves pretty well and has a nice offensive repertoire. He can block shots, and if he weren’t such a pathetic rebounder, I might rate him even higher. Hawes is better than several current starting centers in the League.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhuFhACWg2E

10. Acie Law. I’ll let Steven Danley handle this one for me:

"When we were preparing to play Texas A. & M. in the tournament, the scouting report pointed out an amazing stat. In the last two minutes of close basketball games, Law outscored the entire opposing team. It wasn't until we actually played him that I understood what that stat meant. For most of the game Law was content to set up his teammates, trying to involve everyone in the game. Coming down the stretch in the second half he went for the jugular and ran off a couple of quick buckets to put us away. Say what you want about his skills or his quickness, but if you have to win a game, you want this kid on the court."

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-25-103/To-Opponents--Acie-Law-is-the-Truth.html

11. Joakim Noah. I never liked this guy, even before his epileptic fit:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQ3y5hTHuP4

He’ll be a good defender and rebounder, as well as an embarrassment to a franchise.

12. Brandan Wright. Until recently, many sites had Wright projected as high as #3, comparing him to Chris Bosh. Wright is actually a lot like Bosh, only without the basketball skills and the desire to rebound. He’ll score around the basket and block a few shots.

13. Thaddeus Young. Young is a couple of years away from contributing, but he has an NBA body and he can shoot from outside.

14. Aaron Brooks. Brooks is a 2nd round talent, but if I don’t create some 1st round buzz for him, who will?

15-16. Marco Bellinelli/Tiago Splitter/Marc Gasol/Rudy Fernandez. I realize I just listed four guys for two spots. I’ll predict two of these guys will be decent, and two will suck. I’m not going to try to guess which two based on youtube clips and the opening paragraphs of Chad Ford columns that I’m too cheap to pay for full access to.

17. Sean Williams. Williams blocked 5 shots a game before getting booted off his team. He’s probably capable of blocking a few in the NBA too. Sounds like an Eddie Griffin-type player. He can ride shotgun in Griffin’s Escalade.

http://sports.outsidethebeltway.com/2006/07/eddie-griffin-driving-while-masturbating/

18. Josh McRoberts. I’ve been making fun of this guy since the day he arrived on the Duke campus. He’s the latest incarnation of the Big Goofy Duke White Guy. Watched a Duke game lately? I don’t even think they’re offering scholarships to black players anymore. But now that it comes down to draft day, and all the really good prospects are gone, McRoberts doesn’t look so bad anymore. While his scoring and rebounding aren’t going to wow anybody, he did average a very impressive 3.5 assists and 2.5 blocks last season.


19. Julian Wright. Blip…Blip…Blip…Beep…Beep!...Beeeepp!!...BEEEEPPP!!!!

Sorry, the DMD (Darius Miles Detector) is really going berserk here. Really athletic? Check. Can’t shoot? Check. Kind of an idiot? Check.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTqVjbEFh_s


20. Jared Dudley. Dudley averaged 19 and 8 boards on his way to being the ACC Player of the Year. Josh Howard comes to mind. Dudley’s a competitor, and he’ll find a spot in someone’s rotation. He won’t be quite the steal that Howard was for Dallas, but he’ll be a good value pick late in the first round.

Busts:

Nick Young – I watched USC play at least 5 times this year and it never crossed my mind that Nick Young was an NBA talent.

Rodney Stuckey – A tweener from a tiny college whose NBA comparison on ww.nbadraft.net is DeJuan Wagner.

Javaris Crittenton – A turnover prone, shoot-first point guard.

Worth a flier:

Glen Davis, aka Big Baby. Let me get this straight. A year ago, a fat Glen Davis was considered a potential lottery pick. Now he’s lost something like 50 pounds, and he’s considered a 2nd rounder? Davis will make a roster.

Alando Tucker – Once considered a Naismith candidate, got hurt near the end of the season.

It's Oden - according to espn.com

The ESPN.com front page says Greg Oden has been told he'll be the #1 pick. The message boards say otherwise. Jason Quick says he's worried that Pritchard wants Durant. Picking Durant at this point would be an incredibly bold move. I'm just excited to see what happens. I'll be blogging before, during and after the draft tomorrow.

Five Random Thoughts

Here is what I’m thinking about right now:

1. Ime Udoka is a class guy and deserves a spot on a roster…just not with Portland. He’s spent nearly his whole life here as a high schooler, then at Portland State and then bouncing around the various minor leagues before finally catching on with the Blazers. The most amazing thing about Udoka for me was the fact that his contract was not guaranteed until early January. Meaning that if the Blazers had cut him, they wouldn’t have had to pay him. Talk about pressure. Udoka possessed the mental toughness to earn a starting role, the unflinching support of guys like Zach Randolph, Brandon Roy and Nate McMillan, all while playing with a huge weight on his shoulders. His NBA life was in the balance but he relaxed, played and contributed. Which brings me to Martell Webster. The kid is guaranteed money, he’s set for life. But he plays as if one misdeed is going to get him cut. As if a 1-8 shooting performance means getting put out of the league. He can’t relax. In short, he doesn’t possess a shred of mental toughness. I like Udoka, God love him, but the Blazers need an upgrade at that position.
   
2. I think Thad Matta should be fired for his tank job in coaching the Buckeyes in the championship game last year. While the Ohio State guards were bombing away, hoisting 23 three pointers in the final game loss to Florida, Greg Oden was a beast inside. He fouled out Chris Richard, drew four fouls on Joaquim Noah, three on Horford and three on Maurice Speights enroute to 25 points and 12 boards. So why did Matta give the green light to guys like Jamar Butler (1-6 from three), Ron Lewis (0-4) and Ivan Harris (2-8)? Oden was 10-15 from the field and 5-8 at the line. Check out the shot charts from the game and tell me who should have attempted 23 shots. Matta deserves a ton of credit for Florida’s championship. Even if Oden was tiring, he should have touched the ball on the block every time. That was a hatchet job of coaching if I’ve ever seen one. Or perhaps he was trying to devalue his big man so he’d consider staying in school or is he that incompetent?
   
3. Everyone in Portland is saying that Sergio is the point guard and Sergio is the future etc etc. I disagree with this and would love to see Jack have a chance to develop his game. NBA point guard is a steep learning curve and some guys take several years to pick it up or really emerge. I think Jack, while already solid, will develop into a borderline all-star before he’s done. He’s a tough, hard-nosed kid, who loves to compete and wants to improve. He lost his confidence a few times last year but as I said, point guard is a tough position to come in and excel at right off the bat. Somehow in just under 13 minutes a game, Portland fall in love with Sergio. Sergio had some flashes, but Jack was Portland’s third leading scorer, leading assist-man and an emotional and physical leader down the stretch when the rest of the club was sidelined. Sergio did have a few nice games, 23 points and 10 assists vs. Denver, an 18 point game against Minnesota and a 9 point, 10 assist game vs. Phoenix. But Jack was consistent all year and is still growing. He put up some big games as well, 30 points and seven boards against the Lakers, a 22 point, 8 assist, nine board gem against Toronto etc. Jack has potential to be a very good NBA player. He’s a better finisher around the rim than Sergio, stronger and a better defender. I’m not ready to turn over the keys to Sergio just yet. Let the foursome of Jack, Roy, Aldridge and Oden grow together. That group of four could go down in Blazer history.
   
4. The sad case of Darius Miles. I still forget he’s actually technically on the roster. I’ve heard he’s more than 40 pounds over his playing weight. He had some physical gifts but must have given his mental gifts away. He never cared about basketball, never really wanted it and probably will look back on his career and think, “man, all those coaches and organizations screwed me over, wouldn’t let me play my game.” Or he’ll say, “yep, I was a baller. If not for that knee injury…” Whatever the case and whatever he says, I doubt we’ll ever see him in an NBA arena again. Wait, do any NBDL teams play in NBA arenas? What about the IBL?
   
5. Suddenly the Blazers are marketable again, with young engaging players who avoid jail and strip clubs. Brandon Roy is the golden boy/savior, he of the rookie of the year award and even the delivery of the #1 draft pick. Aldridge appears to be somewhat quiet and unassuming, but I’ve heard him in several interviews and he’s actually very engaging and thoughtful. Oden is a character. I feel like he’s got genuine opinions (newsflash - he likes the WNBA), thoughts and beliefs and he’ll fit in perfectly in this locker-room. So the question is who is going to be the face? Who’ll be on the billboards, the buses, the bobbleheads etc? In short, they all will. I think they’ll all be on the billboards on I-5 and outside the arena, they’ll all appear in commercials for GI Joes and Columbia Sportswear and they’ll all be Grand Marshall’s for the Rose Festival parades. They are fun, funny and likable or exactly the opposite of ‘Sheed, Bonzi Wells and JR Rider.

How the 2006 Draft Resurrected the Portland Trailblazers

Heading into Draft Day 2006, the Blazer franchise was at an all-time low. Coming off a 21-win season, Portland’s young “talent” consisted of Sebastian Telfair, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster and Ha Seung-Jin (a.k.a. the Embarrassing Sideshow). The Blazers were relying on Zach Randolph (post-microfracture), Darius Miles (pre-microfracture) and Theo Ratliff (completely crippled) for “veteran leadership.” Despite holding the league’s worst record, and thus the league’s most ping-pong balls, the Blazers struck out in the lottery, landing the #4 pick. The Blazers were coming off a disastrous 2005 Draft, in which they had traded out of the #3 pick (and a chance to draft Chris Paul or Deron Williams) and selected Webster at #6.

Leading up to the draft, the 2006 class of prospects was considered to be weak. Texas forward LaMarcus Aldridge was projected as the #1 or #2 pick the entire season by http://www.nba.draft.net/. LSU pogo stick Tyrus Thomas burst onto the scene with a tremendous NCAA tournament and became the potential top pick. Andrea Bargnani was a wildcard – kind of a Dirk Nowitzki-type, but not nearly as good. Brandon Roy, Rudy Gay and Randy Foye were all mentioned as possible top-5 picks. Blazerland was clamoring for management to draft the “‘Stache”, Gonzaga’s Adam Morrison. (In retrospect, Morrison crying during an NCAA Tournament game, while his team still had a chance to win, probably should have alerted everyone that he was not a top-5 pick. Also the fact that he doesn’t play defense or rebound.)

Heading into the draft, I wanted LaMarcus Aldridge. I’m a Texas alum, and was a big fan of LaMarcus as a college player. The one guy I didn’t want was Tyrus Thomas. My Darius Miles Detector starts beeping whenever I see a guy who is (i) really athletic, (ii) can’t shoot, and (iii) seems like kind of an idiot. Thomas hits the trifecta.

I groaned when the Bulls drafted Aldridge. I would have groaned even louder when the Blazers drafted Thomas, if the Blazers/Bulls trade (Thomas and Khryapa for Aldridge) hadn’t already been reported. I was satisfied at this point. Contrary to Stephen A. Smith’s inane rant on the subject, the Blazers had given up very little to land the top prospect in the draft with the #4 pick.

But the Blazers weren’t done there. Sometime prior to the draft, Danny Ainge apparently felt a twinge of guilt over letting the Blazers down in the ’92 Finals against Chicago, and decided to make things right. To help get the Blazer franchise on track, he traded Boston’s #7 pick to Portland for Sebastian Telfair. After a swap with Minnesota, the Blazers landed the soon-to-be 2007 Rookie of the Year, Brandon Roy. I had labeled Brandon Roy as the next Shane Battier – a nice role player who wasn’t athletic enough to be a star. I am happy to have been proven wrong. I would have taken Morrison ahead of Roy, which I guess makes me more like Michael Jordan than Kevin Pritchard.

(In between the Blazers’ two picks, the Atlanta Hawks decided Duke’s Shelden Williams was worthy of the #5 pick, apparently because they liked the added value of being able to project their game film on his forehead. Check out: http://www.nbadraft.net/actorteam.asp Scroll down about ¼ of the page to see the remarkable likeness Shelden bears to the animated Ken Griffey Jr. with gigantism from the classic “Homer at the Bat” Simpsons episode.)

Roy was the league’s best rookie from start to finish, averaging 17 a game and quickly becoming the most popular man in Portland. Aldridge hit his stride late in the season, averaging close to 15 points and 8 rebounds in the month of March, while showing all-star caliber potential. The Blazers improved by 10 wins, turned the team culture around, promoted Kevin Pritchard to GM, then won the Oden/Durant Sweepstakes despite 20-to-1 odds. Draft Day 2007 will be remembered as the day the Blazers landed Greg Oden, but Draft Day 2006 was the Blazers’ Resurrection Day.

Portland asking too much for Randolph?

http://www.hoopshype.com/rumors.htm

Hoopshype has a link (to a bullet point citing an anonymous source) saying the Blazers are asking too much for Zach Randolph. This is good. We don't need to give Zach away. We can sit tight while the fate of Garnett, Jermaine O'Neal and Pau Gasol is decided. After teams like Chicago or Detroit realize they can't land one of those guys, Zach will become their best option.

I think a trade with Chicago involving Nocioni, a contract, and the #9 pick for Z-Bo would make sense for both teams. Nocioni is stuck behind Deng in Chicago, and the Bulls aren't going to find the low-post scorer they need at #9. For Portland, Aldridge is ready to step in at the 4, Nocioni would be an upgrade from Udoka at the 3, and they'd be free to take the best player available at #9.

If Chicago needs a little extra to make this deal, I'm willing to throw in a couple of 2nd rounders, or even Martell Webster, if they want him.

This trade is a bit complicated due to Nocioni's free agent status. He'd have to come over as a sign-and-trade, and this can't happen until July 1. But as long as Chicago doesn't draft a complete stiff (Spencer Hawes) I think there's some hope for this deal.

Martell Webster

I'll be in Vegas to watch the Blazers' summer league in a couple weeks. One player I'll be particularly interested to watch is Martell Webster.

I was a little miffed when Portland traded out of the #3 spot of the '05 draft to take Webster. I wanted Chris Paul. I was disgusted when Paul tore through the league as a rookie. I was even more disheartended when Deron Williams proved to be an all-star caliber point guard this year. (disclosure: I had Raymond Felton rated ahead of Deron Williams, because I thought Williams was too slow.) We made a terrible trade and missed out on two fantastic point guards - apparently because we already had Sebastian Telfair on the roster.

I give that history, because I acknowledge that it probably negatively impacts my assessment of Webster, which is that he sucks. In the 21 undeserved minutes per game Martell played last year, he managed to shoot 39% from the field. And he didn't contribute anything else.

But there is some hope for Martell. He's only 20 years old. He's got a big NBA body, and a sweet shooting stroke (at least during practice). He can even finish a little bit around the rim.

My concern about Martell is for his mental game. Jason Quick predicted that Martell has played his final game as a Blazer. (It's in this chat: http://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/jason_quick/index.ssf?/live/blazers/quick_041907.html )
Quick reports that Martell doesn't fit the culture, isn't coachable and isn't working to improve the way his teammates are.

I'll be looking for two things this summer from Webster: a positive attitude and some sign that he's improved. If I don't see those two things, I'll be ready to get rid of him and try to forget that we once had the #3 pick in the '05 draft. The one silver lining: If we'd had Chris Paul or Deron Williams this year, we'd have won way too many games to land the #1 pick.

Check back here in mid-July for full sumer league coverage.

Pryzbilla & Jack for #6

Today's hot rumor suggests the Blazers and Bucks have discussed or considered a deal that would send Joel Pryzbilla and Jarrett Jack to Milwaukee for the #6 pick and Dan Gadzuric's corpse. I strongly doubt this deal will happen, but let's consider the ramifications of a trade like this.

I think this is a good deal for the Blazers if, and only if, they have a plan in place to replace Jack at the point. The problem with this scenario, and others involving Jack, is that they leave us scrambling to find starters for both the small forward and point guard positions.

I don't think Sergio Rodriguez or Dan Dickau can take us to the playoffs next year as the starter. Signing Steve Blake as the replacement starter would be a step backward, or at best a sideways move, as I've argued in my point guard post. So Portland either be (i) rolling the dice with Sergio, (ii) hoping Conley slides to #6, (iii) trading whatever tradeable assets we'd have left (Zach, Martell) to acquire a veteran point guard, or (iv) signing a veteran free agent within the mid-level exception (Blake is the best of the bunch. Jason Hart, Smush Parker and Chucky Atkins are also infinitely avaiable).

Pryzbilla is overpaid, considering he hardly made it onto the floor last season. Even when his scrotal region was healthy enough for him to compete, the team played 4-on-5 at the offensive end of the court. (Stat geeks, has anyone ever averaged both fewer points (2.0) and more blocked shots (1.5) than Joel did last season?) But I still think he brings some value to the Blazers (especially if we draft Durant, which I'm assuming we won't). At Ohio State, Oden frequently found himself in foul trouble, and occasionally became fatigued, as pointed out approximately 700 times by the broadcasters in the championship game against Florida. Between foul trouble, fatigue, and possible injury or occasional rookie benching, Portland will have plenty of room for a backup center. I don't believe Zach Randolph figures into the Blazers' long-term plans, so Aldridge needs to be the starting 4, not the backup 5. I haven't heard any talk of re-signing Magloire. I don't think we want LaFrentz or Gadzuric picking up all those minutes. So Joel does have some value to Portland, and his absence would leave another hole to fill.

On the positive side, the #6 pick is likely to yield a talented player. Oden, Durant and Al Horford will definitely be off the board. Yi Jianlian is an intriguing prospect, but he's a power forward and doesn't fit a need for us. Joakim Noah and Brandan Wright don't fit, either (and aren't going to be all that good. I wouldn't use a top-10 pick on either of these guys). That leaves, possibly, Conley, Corey Brewer and/or Jeff Green. Conley would make sense here, since he fills the point guard gap, has a higher upside than Jack, and is Oden's buddy. Also, we could fill the small forward need by trading Z-Bo. If the choice is between Brewer and Green, I'd take Brewer because of his superior perimeter defense and shooting ability.

A couple of points to remember- we're not loading up for a championship run this season or even next season. Teams full of rookies and young players don't win championships in the NBA. So we can trot Ime Udoka out as our starting 3, or Steve Blake as our point guard as a short-term solution, with an eye on upgrading to a more talented veteran down the road. But we're not going to be terrible anymore, either. Our days of landing top-5 draft picks are almost certainly over. So, while we're not desperate to make a move, our chances of landing high-quality young talent after this season are probably slim. Making the right moves with Z-Bo and Jack could make the difference between Portland being a contender, or a champion. So don't screw it up, Prichard.

Who will be the Blazers point guard in 07-08???

Assuming the Blazers draft Oden, they will have the 2, 4 & 5 spots locked up, presumably for the next decade. But who will run the point for the talented Roy/Aldridge/Oden troika?

The Blazers have two promising young point guards on the roster, in Jarrett Jack and Sergio Rodriguez. The 23-year-old Jack averaged 12 points and 5 assists as the starter last season. He shot the ball at a reasonably efficient 45% clip from the field and an excellent 87% from the foul line. Jack suffered a late-season slump, averaging a mere 7.7 ppg in March, but finished with several strong games in April. Jack, by all accounts, has shown the high character and tremendous work ethic that Blazer management is trying to cultivate.

Although Jack had some consistency problems and is merely an average defender, I thought he showed nice progress in his second year and proved that he's capable of being a steady (although not spectacular) starting point guard in the League. So I found it surprising when Jack's name started popping up in several trade rumors this off-season. Why would the Blazers want to move him?

Jason Quick, in a chat this summer, suggested that Blazer management doesn't think Jack has the talent to lead a playoff contender (check here for the archives: http://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/jason_quick/). But if Jack isn't the answer, who is?

21-year-old Sergio Rodriguez showed flashes of brilliance as a rookie. It's hard not to get excited about Sergio's potential when you watch this clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcqJ1sBLfU8

But Sergio never found favor with Coach McMillan, and averaged a mere 13 minutes a game. His defense is porous, at best. I strongly doubt the Blazers are ready to turn the team over to Sergio next season. I'm not convinced he'll ever be the starter - he just doesn't strike me as a "Nate" guy. So if we're going to trade Jack, and Sergio isn't ready, who will Portland bring in?

Enter Steve Blake. The popular former Blazer averaged 8 points and around 7 assists as a starter for the second half of last season in Denver. Blake started 57 games for the Blazers in 05-06. Blake owns a home in Portland, and recently expressed a willingness to return. Blake is an unrestricted free agent, and could be signed quite cheaply.

I'd be happy to sign Blake as a backup. But frankly, I don't think he's good enough to be the starter. Blake is a 40% career shooter. His playoff performance against the Spurs this year was underwhelming. He looked completely out of place as a starting playoff point guard, and maintained a deer-in-headlights look down the stretch of the one close SA/DEN game that I caught. Also, click on the Sergio highlight video link above, and see if you can spot Blake being repeatedly torched on D- that is, until Denver had to switch to zone.

If the Blazers are going to trade Jack, I'm convinced they either (i) have a trade in place to bring in a talented veteran (Billups? Andre Miller? -this seems unlikely, but maybe Pritchard is up to something) or (ii) have their eye on a particular rookie in the draft.

This year's draft, while very strong at the top and deep at the small forward position, does not have many good point guards. Mike Conley is the top prospect, and will very likely land in the top 5. I think Portland would like to get Conley, but they certainly won't give up Roy or Aldridge to get him. I don't think anybody is willing to give up the #5 pick to get Zach Randolph. Acie Law of Texas A&M is the clear-cut #2 guy after Conley, in my mind. He's coming off a fantastic senior season, carrying his squad to a top-ten ranking for much of the year. Law has the size and the skill set to step in and start as a rookie. His shot, while unconventional, fell at a very solid 46% clip from deep last season. Javaris Crittenton of Georgia Tech is slated as a first round pick as well. Crittenton is a big, explosive scorer. He also averaged 4 turnovers a game while leading a talented GT team through a disappointing season. Crittenton is not ready to take over an NBA team (and may never be ready). Nor are we going to find a savior in the second round, although Ramon Sessions or Zabian Dowdell would probably be worth a flier with one of the Blazers' four picks.

I don't see a clear solution here. I hate the idea of moving Jack and signing Blake as the starter. Blake and Sergio have exactly the same weaknesses (and body type, which is one of the weaknesses). I like Acie Law, but would it be worth shipping a known quantity in Jack (possibly to Atlanta for the #11 pick) to acquire an unproven rookie?

I'd be perfectly happy if all the Jack trade talk turns out to be just a smokescreen. Let's pencil Jarrett in as the starter and worry about finding a small forward.

Oden vs. Durant - Just Pick Already!

By nature, I hate hype. I get worn out by excessive coverage of a news item or event and despite my status as a HUGE Blazer fan, the Oden vs. Durant debate – AKA “Decision ’07” has worn me out.

Thankfully, the Oregon State Beavers gave me brief respite, but with the draft just four days away and the Beavs currently basking in a back-to-back championship haze, I have to weigh in as my colleague Jon has done.

First, I’m very excited to have Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. Both should instantly make Portland better and put us on the brink of the playoffs. And secondly, they both appear to be great guys who will fit in perfectly with Portland’s youth/character movement of Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Jarrett Jack and everyone else not named Zach Randolph or Darius Miles.

The question remains though, who to take? GM Kevin Pritchard studied under Greg Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs, so he knows first-hand what a revolutionary big man can do to a franchise. But he’s also very shrewd. I think everyone thinks he’ll take Oden, but he may love Durant. The fact that Durant wowed everyone at his recent workout only muddies the issue in my mind.

I’ve waffled back and forth. I started out as 100% Oden but I’ve wavered slightly after reading reports of Durant’s recent workout. Several weeks ago there was a report released the Oden was falling apart. His wrist won’t bend, he had bulging discs in his back, he was actually 43 years old etc etc etc. I don’t believe these reports and even if they are true, I trust the Blazers brass to poke and prod Oden in all the right places to see if he’s suitable to draft. So while I’ve waffled back and forth, I remain slightly in the Oden camp, believing (rightly so) that big men lead to championships. Even if Durant turns out to be the next Jordan, Oden is more Hakeem than Bowie.

All this leads me to my point. As long as the Blazer front office is on the same page, I’m okay with whomever they select. If Nate/Pritchard/Allen et al want Durant, I’m okay with it. If they want the big man, I’m okay with it. But no more of this crap we had a few years back where some in management wanted Chris Paul but John Nash wanted Martell Webster. Of course it was Nash who had selected Sebastian Telfair at 13 the year before and needed him to work out to save his job. So in that scenario, they weren’t on the same page…they weren’t even in the same book.

After one draft, Pritchard has an A+. Parlaying John Nash’s mistake into the rookie of the year and turning Victor Khryapa into LaMarcus Aldrige has earned him a lifetime of free drinks in Portland. If by selecting Oden or Durant, he helps bring a championship to Portland, the man could probably run for Mayor.

He’ll face stiff competition from Brandon Roy though.

Trade rumor - Boston

I saw a new trade rumor with Boston today:

Zach, LaMarcus, and Portland's 08 first-rounder for
Al Jefferson, Ratliff, and the #5 pick.

Jefferson had a very strong 2nd half of the season last year, emerging as a 20/10 guy on the low block. But I don't think this trade makes sense for the Blazers.

Aldridge seems like a better fit alongside Oden in the post, because he has a nice midrange game. Jefferson is best planted on a block, just like Oden. If Portland's planning to draft Durant, I don't think they should move Zach unless a great offer comes along.

Would Boston make the deal minus Aldridge and Jefferson? If so, I'm all over it. The Blazers pick up Theo's expiring contract and have a good shot at Corey Brewer or Mike Conley. Portland's first-rounder next year won't be top-ten pick and isn't all that valuable. Moving Zach improves our prospects of signing a good veteran after the 08-09 season (when LaFrentz comes off the books).