According to multiple sources, Kevin Pritchard is working hard to acquire a second lottery pick in this year's draft. The Blazers need an upgrade at small forward, and there are several good prospects in this draft. Following is my analysis of the top six small forwards:
Kevin Durant, Texas-
Far and away the 2nd-best prospect in the draft, he would have gone #1 in 8 of the last 9 drafts. See the Oden v. Durant post for more.
Corey Brewer, Florida-
Positives: reputed to be a lockdown defender, Brewer can also put the ball on the floor, finish in transition, and has decent touch on the perimeter. He won two national championships and was the MOP of the 2007 Final Four.
Negatives: I'm not convinced he'll be a 3-point threat in the NBA. He shot just 33.6% from 3 his senior season. He needs to get in the weight room (as does Durant). He wore a T-shirt under his jersey in college, suggesting he's none too proud of his physique.
Bottom line: Brewer brings a lot to the table at both ends of the floor and is a proven winner. Brewer's weaknesses - perimeter shooting and upper body strength - can be improved with enough work. Brewer's strengths - quickness, length, defensive tenacity - are more innate qualities, and set him apart from his draft competition. If Portland somehow lands Boston's #5 pick, this would be the small forward I'd take. (We'd also have to consider Conley Jr. at #5, especially if we move Jarrett Jack.)
Al Thornton, FSU -
I have to admit, I didn't watch a single Florida State game this season. I've been won over by his stats and a couple of youtube clips. Thornton put up 20 a game in the ACC on 53% shooting and 44% from deep. He also jumped over some guy's head and dunked on him. If Brewer's off the board, I'm rolling the dice on this guy. He could give the Blazers some serious scoring punch.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBBBw3OoFrQ
Jeff Green, Georgetown -
Strengths- He's a smart player and he led Georgetown to a Final Four. He gets his teammates involved, and wouldn't take a lot of shots away from Aldridge and Oden.
Weakness- He's not much of an outside shooter, and he's a bit of a tweener. I don't know if he can defend NBA small forwards. He also travelled against Vandy. His statistics as a junior were exactly the same as when he was a freshman. He just strikes me as a role player. (Admission- I'd made that same comment about Brandon Roy prior to last year's draft.)
Bottom Line: The latest mock drafts at nbadraft.net and draftexpress.com have Green going to Boston at #5. I think that's too high. If Portland gets the #11 pick from Atlanta, and Green is still around, then I give him a look.
Thaddeus Young, Georgia Tech-
Strengths- Young is a physical specimen. As a freshman, he scored 14 a game and shot 42% from three. He has the physical capability to be a big-time scorer and a solid defender.
Weaknesses- Raw, especially compared to the four guys I have rated ahead of him. I'm not convinced he has the skill set and mental game needed to contribute right away. Georgia Tech had one of the most talented teams in the country this year and barely made the NCAA tournament. Can't pin it all on Young, but his team's performance reflects poorly on all those guys (especially Javaris Crittendon, in my mind).
Bottom line: I think he'd have been a top ten pick in next year's draft if he'd gone back to school. Worth a pick in the teens if the Blazers wind up there somehow.
Julian Wright, Kansas-
Great athlete, can't shoot. Throw in a microfracture surgery, and you've got Darius Miles. I have very little interest in this guy.
This play alone dropped him 10 spots on my draft board:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTqVjbEFh_s
To be fair, a Darius Miles with a good attitude is probably worth a pick in the 15-20 range.
Some other guys that would be worth taking with a late 1st or early 2nd:
Alando Tucker
Jared Dudley
Saturday, June 23, 2007
Oden or Durant??
Pretty much every basketball blogger and major sports site has already weighed in on this topic, but I can't have a Blazers blog without addressing it. Almost everybody is advocating Oden, including the Blazer fan base (by about a 4-1 margin). I find myself in the Oden camp as well, albeit reluctantly.
I grew up in Portland, but I'm also a Longhorn (UT law, class of '04). I watched Texas play at least a dozen times this year. Kevin Durant is the most talented player I've seen in my 15 or so years of following college basketball. He can get his shot off at will, he can put the ball on the floor, and has nice touch around the basket. He also combines freakishly long arms with a nose for the ball, allowing him to snare a ton of rebounds, blocks, and steals. He's not a lockdown defender at this stage, but he has the physical tools (think Andrei Kirilenko before Jerry Sloan destroyed his mind) to be a disruptive force at that end of the court. The oft-maligned Rick Barnes occasionally put Durant at the top of the zone, where he was very effective disrupting passing lanes and challenging shots.
I will go on record with a prediction that Kevin Durant will lead the league in scoring at least once within the next five years. He'll also be a contributor at the defensive end. I won't be disappointed if the Blazers draft Durant.
However, I'm going to fall in line and advocate Oden, just like everybody else. Oden is going to be the best defensive center in the league for the next decade. His shot-blocking is devastating - ask Tennessee(see posted clips). He may never develop into a huge scorer, but he'll get 15-20 a game (on 55+ FG%) just by hanging around the basket and feeding on his teammates' scraps. A highly-efficient 20 ppg is of tremendous value to a team. I get excited every time I think about Oden paired with LaMarcus Aldridge (I'm very high on Aldridge- more on him in a future post).
As Kevin Pritchard likes to say, you have to pick the guy that will bring championships. History shows the most likely path to championships is through a dominant big man. Oden is that big man.
I grew up in Portland, but I'm also a Longhorn (UT law, class of '04). I watched Texas play at least a dozen times this year. Kevin Durant is the most talented player I've seen in my 15 or so years of following college basketball. He can get his shot off at will, he can put the ball on the floor, and has nice touch around the basket. He also combines freakishly long arms with a nose for the ball, allowing him to snare a ton of rebounds, blocks, and steals. He's not a lockdown defender at this stage, but he has the physical tools (think Andrei Kirilenko before Jerry Sloan destroyed his mind) to be a disruptive force at that end of the court. The oft-maligned Rick Barnes occasionally put Durant at the top of the zone, where he was very effective disrupting passing lanes and challenging shots.
I will go on record with a prediction that Kevin Durant will lead the league in scoring at least once within the next five years. He'll also be a contributor at the defensive end. I won't be disappointed if the Blazers draft Durant.
However, I'm going to fall in line and advocate Oden, just like everybody else. Oden is going to be the best defensive center in the league for the next decade. His shot-blocking is devastating - ask Tennessee(see posted clips). He may never develop into a huge scorer, but he'll get 15-20 a game (on 55+ FG%) just by hanging around the basket and feeding on his teammates' scraps. A highly-efficient 20 ppg is of tremendous value to a team. I get excited every time I think about Oden paired with LaMarcus Aldridge (I'm very high on Aldridge- more on him in a future post).
As Kevin Pritchard likes to say, you have to pick the guy that will bring championships. History shows the most likely path to championships is through a dominant big man. Oden is that big man.
Vegas Summer League
The creators of this blog will be in Vegas July 11-15 to watch the Blazers summer league. Check back here for analysis of the Blazers' summer leaguers and other players of interest.
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