Western Conference Analysis

Now appears to be a good time to be a Blazer fan. The bandwagon is quickly refilling so get your spots now. There are several obvious reasons to return to the Blazers, namely:

Greg Oden will be donning a Blazer uni and figures to man the middle for the next 12-15 years.

Kevin Pritchard – A GM short on experience but long on common sense. He worked with San Antonio and they are a model franchise. That’s a solid franchise to learn from.

’06 Draft – The day Pritchard officially turned the franchise around. Eschewing public opinion by avoiding the ‘stache (Adam Morrison), the Blazers instead made a slew of deals and came away with arguably the two best players in the ’06 draft, LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy. Of course Roy won the rookie of the year and Aldridge began to show glimpses of his ceiling midway through the year before shutting it down with a heart condition that required surgery (this condition will not keep him out of games and he will be on the Vegas Summer League team).

The Western Conference leaders are all getting older

It’s this point I’d like to discuss a little more at length. While the Blazers have been mired in awfulness in the last three years, the Western Conference has dominated the league for what seems like eternity. Really, it’s been two teams, the Lakers and the Spurs. Those two franchises have won seven of the last nine championships and the Lakers were runners up one of those years. So, the western conference has been running the NBA show for the past decade.

So the Blazers were terrible for a few years, gave us the Jail Blazers Era, the Sebastian Telfair era, the Darius Miles/Zach Randolph Era but now, they give us the fearsome foursome era with Oden, Mayor Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Jarrett Jack. These four Blazers will surely take Portland back to the top of the Western Conference heap.

Starting with the champions and moving backwards, we can analyze the teams currently ahead of the Blazers and judge if they are moving forward, backward or staying the same. This is long term, over the next four or five years. I cannot possibly take into account things like draft luck, blockbuster deals or prison sentences.

San Antonio – Fourth title in nine years. The most dominant low post player in the game. Quicksilver guards and a very well run organization to boot. In my view, Duncan has another three or four years as the best low post player in the game. Virtually unstoppable right now and I expect him to continue at that level for the next three or four years. After that, I predict that he has another three or four years of being a really good player but not the superstar. The Spurs also have Manu who has four or five peak years left to run with Duncan and then Parker, who is just scratching the surface and discovering his outside shot and leadership abilities. When Duncan loses steam, Parker should be at the peak of his career and look for Popovich to adjust the offense slightly to take advantage of Parker’s quickness.
Verdict – Moving forward – The Spurs are too well run to fall apart at this point. I think they have six to eight more years of being at or near the top of the entire league.

Utah – Sloan has been in Utah ever since I can remember. He thinks he might have found Stockton and Malone version 2.0 in Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams and after a great playoff run, he might be right. At one point, Andrei Kirilenko was one of the games most versatile players. A juggernaut on defense and on the glass, a true utility man with superstar abilities. But something happened. He lost playing time, he played out of position, his wife cried to the papers or something, but now, they’re looking to move him. If I’m Jerry Sloan, I’m trying to find a way to keep Kirilenko because he’s a smart player and does so many things well. It’s tough to find players like that. He does make a fortune though and signing Williams will be priority number one when he’s a free agent. Williams emerged as the best young point guard in the league. Chris Paul is a great player, but until he does what Deron Williams did in the NBA playoffs, I will rate Williams higher.
Verdict – Moving forward – The nucleus of Williams, Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Kirlenko is young, versatile and dangerous. If Sloan can keep it all together and get those four to buy into what he’s preached for the last 100 years, Utah should consistently finish near the top of the pack. A true, high scoring wingman would make them super dangerous.

Phoenix –Steve Nash’s back can’t hold up much longer. For some reason Shawn Marion thinks he can be the best player on a good team and Amare Stoudemire had one of the most serious knee surgeries out there. He’s still explosive, but not 40 points per game against San Antonio in the western conference semi’s explosive. Their window is closing and D’Antoni’s system is predicated on Steve Nash and his ability to read defenses and make plays. Leandro Barbosa is a quick point guard but posses neither the brain nor the body control to run the team the way Nash does. Plus, they don’t play defense and can’t get stops when it matters the most. Teams that execute well, like San Antonio, run their offense with too much precision to beat themselves which is essentially what Phoenix is hoping for when playing defense.
Verdict – Moving back – When Nash retires, D’Antoni will have to revamp his system. Marion wants to show his alpha dog stuff and Stoudemire’s knee is and always will be a question.

Golden State – 100% flash in the pan. This team teetered on the brink all year and got hot at the right time. They drew the perfect opponent and Don Nelson lived in Avery Johnson’s head the whole series. So much so that before they even played a game, Johnson was tinkering with his lineup. Dallas won 67 games this year, yet Johnson feels that a 42-40 eight seed can’t be beaten. Ridiculous. Buoyed by a boisterous Golden State crowd, the Warriors pulled the upset against Dallas and regular season MVP Dirk Nowitzki will be seeing visions of Stephen Jackson in his sleep. But when you look at Golden State, they play small ball but it’s a different small ball than Phoenix. They just jack threes. They are dependant upon penetration and kicks and when things are going well, it’s a fun offense. But when legs are tired and shots are off, it’s abysmal. Baron Davis hasn’t proven to be consistent player, despite freakish abilities and Stephen Jackson hasn’t proven that he can avoid prison. Matt Barnes burst onto the scene because he worked hard and collected boards and dunked on some people. He will soon parlay that into a huge deal from someone (probably Boston or New York).
Verdict – Moving back – Nelson has proved adept at turning around organizations. But this is Golden State. They are too unstable physically (Davis) and emotionally (Jackson) to contend on a yearly basis. Plus they just traded away Richardson for Branden Wright who is probably several years away from contributing like Richardson did.

Dallas – Will they blow it up? I say they won’t. They won 67 games and drew the worst possible matchup in the first round. They are lacking some inside scoring and the new NBA allows them to be formidable but not championship caliber yet. Dirk is Dirk and he had a lousy playoff series. He doesn’t like to bang but he’s easily one of the top players in the league. Devin Harris is burgeoning into a good point guard in the mode of Tony Parker. Lightning quick but still discovering his outside shot. When he does that, look out, he will be sensational. Josh Howard is a versatile forward with several different skills. I don’t think the Mavs should blow it up but perhaps if they can snag a good, rugged low post player (Zach Randolph might have helped) it would really help in crunch time.
Verdict – Staying – You don’t win 67 games without being good. Avery Johnson essentially told the team before the series, “You are not good enough to win so I have to make adjustments.” Absolutely stupid coaching move. For a team that nearly won a championship a year ago, blowing the thing up is a bad idea. Make a few adjustments, but don’t blow it up.

Houston – A very good big man teamed with an electrifying, dangerous and high scoring wing so why can’t this team win a playoff series? Could it be that they start Chuck Hayes at a forward and a former street baller at the point? This team is interesting because they have some pieces, arguably two of the best at their respective positions, but the rest of the lineup is unimpressive. They’ll need to upgrade several positions or risk plummeting in the standings. Two players are not enough to contend for a title.
Verdict – Staying or Moving back – Yao and McGrady aren’t getting younger, so Houston should consider making a move ASAP. Teams like Portland, Utah, and Seattle could be on their way up, while teams like San Antonio and Dallas aren’t going anywhere soon. Make a move or they’re out of the playoffs.

LA Lakers – Will this Kobe crap ever stop? The guy chased Shaq out of town but now he’s critical of the front office because the guys they brought in aren’t good enough. Had Shaq and Kobe put aside their egos, they probably could have won a couple more titles but as it is, they hung their hat on Kobe and it’s led to two first round exits. Long term, this franchise is not going anywhere. Kobe is getting older and is obviously somewhat of a cancer. What free agent would want to play with him? Not many. Kevin Garnett may be the only exception to this rule though. If any superstar would be happy being the second gunman, it would be KG. Bringing in KG would mean trading Bynum, Odom and other crap which isn’t a big deal but it would make them contenders for the next few years. Still, long term, KG and Kobe don’t have enough peak years left to overtake the current conference elite.
Verdict – Moving back – No KG in LA yet so it could get ugly in LA. Phil Jackson didn’t come to LA to lose, which he’s doing and Kobe has to be learning that he can’t do it on his own…even though he was dead certain he could. They have to get better and fast, but their window is closing…particularly if Garnett goes elsewhere.

Denver – How long can the Carmelo Anthony/Allen Iverson marriage last? When things are going well, I can see it working. But the moment something bad happens, a five game losing streak or one guy looking off the other and forcing a shot I can see things imploding. There’s some role guys in place but can two of the highest scoring players in the league really co-exist peacefully. My gut says no and I think I’ll be right. Iverson is at the tail end of his career and amazingly, his body hasn’t broken down yet. But he can’t keep playing at this level for ever. Anthony is just beginning his rise. Denver is another team that has to do something to keep up. I think it’s too volatile of a situation to last and turn into something great. Really, KG is the only superstar content to be a #2. And for the most part, every team needs a clear cut Batman and a clear cut Robin. Denver has two Batman’s and Steve Blake…not good.
Verdict – Staying…at best – Things could get ugly quick in Denver. Once The Joker Steve Blake signs with Portland, they’re in huge trouble. Things could explode and explode spectacularly in Denver. Or they could fizzle out and lose in the first round yet again. All in all, it’s not a team built for the long haul although they do have the consummate hammer scorer in Anthony. If they put some pieces around him, look out. But they haven’t done that and haven’t shown any signs that they’re going to, so I’ll say they’re staying.

The Blazers are moving forward…and fast. They won 11 more games last year than the year before, and that was with many of their best players missing games at various points of the season. Roy missed 20+ early in the season. Zach missed the end of the year. Pryzbilla took some mysterious knee to the pills and missed a ton of time. LaMarcus had that scary heart condition that appears to be rectified. So in short, Portland had four of its top players miss serious time with injuries yet still improved by 11 games. In fact, in a late season game against Houston, when the Rockets were readying for their playoff run, the Blazers nearly beat them with a lineup of Dan Dickau, Martell Webster, Brandon Roy, Travis Outlaw, and Luke Schenscher. That’s four D-Leaguers and a rookie of the year.

Replace the D-Leaguers with legitimate NBA players which Jarrett Jack, Greg Oden, and LaMarcus Aldridge are, you’ve got a pretty good squad. In two or three years, you have a championship contender.