Blazers Salary Cap Analysis

John Canzano says this of the Z-Bo/Steve Francis trade:

"The rub goes like this... Portland will have between $12-24 million in cap space two years from now because of this deal."
http://blog.oregonlive.com/johncanzano/

Upon analysis, that figure seems wildly optimistic. Last year's salary cap was $53 million. Factoring in a decent annual increase, let's say the 2009/2010 cap will be $60 million.

--------------------Update------------------------------------
Canzano's column today says Darius Miles' contract expires in 2009. Every other source I can find says it runs until 2010. This is likely the cause of Canzano's exaggerated cap space figure.
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The Blazers who will be under contract, (assuming team options are exercised) for 2009-2010 are:

Darius Miles: 9
Joel Przybilla: 6.9
LaMarcus Aldridge: 5.9
Sergio Rodriguez: 1.9
Greg Oden: 6.3
Brandon Roy: 3.9
Rudy Fernandez 1.7

Total Salary: $35.6 million

Pritchard has announced his intention to match any offers for Travis Outlaw. Travis is likely to be offered the full mid-level exception by someone, so I'll pencil him in for $6 million in '09/10.

Total Salary: $41.6 million

This is only 8 players, so now I'll fill in some roster spots with cheap contracts (bench point guard and power forward, 1st round pick from 08 or 09 draft (salaries estimated)):

McRoberts or Freeland: 1.5
Green or Koponen: 1.6
1st rounder: 1.2

Now the Blazers have 11 players and a payroll of $45.9 million. Let's assume Raef, Ime and James Jones are gone. Jarrett Jack, Martell Webster and Channing Frye all expire in '09. If Portland re-signs just one of them for $6 million and lets the other two walk, payroll is close to $52 million. Throw in a couple of minimum contracts, and it's up to $53 million. That would put the Blazers just $7 million under a $60 million cap.

So, unless the Blazers are willing to let a lot of young talent walk away, I don't think they'll have the massive cap space Canzano envisions.

Some ways the Blazers could reduce payroll:

-Darius Miles could be traded for a shorter contract or retire due to injury (ideal scenario).
-They could let Outlaw walk this year, and instead sign Ime Udoka to a 2-year deal.
- They could let Jack, Webster and Frye walk after the 08/09 season.
- They could package Joel Pryzbilla with Jack/Webster/Frye/Outlaw/future picks for an expiring contract prior to the '09 trade deadline.

Even if the Blazers don't manage to free up cap space, they could acquire a big contract in '09 by trading Lafrentz' expiring contract plus young players and/or picks.

I've made a lot of assumptions and estimates in these projections. My salary figures are based on the rookie salary scale, the number posted here: http://www.hoopshype.com/salaries/portland.htm, and where indicated, pure conjecture.