The Blazers' Point Guard Situation - Who Will Be Traded?

Jarret Jack started 79 games for the Blazers last season, averaging 12 points and 5.3 assists while shooting 45% from the field. Jack is 23 years old, and last season was his second in the NBA.

Jack's backup was 21-year-old Sergio Rodriguez, who the Blazers drafted in the first round of the 2006 draft. Sergio showed some potential as a rookie, and has become a fan favorite.

Late in the first round of the 2007 draft, the Blazers traded up to draft Peteri Koponen, a young Finnish point guard. Koponen had a decent showing in summer league, playing primarily off the ball because the summer league roster was loaded with point guards. He's probably a better shooter than Jack or Sergio. The Blazers will keep Koponen in Europe for at least another year.

In the second round of the 2007 draft, the Blazers selected Taurean Green, a smallish point guard and two-time national champion at Florida. Green was scrappy in summer league, and shot the ball well from deep. However, his passing, ability to run an NBA team, and defensive quickness are all suspect. Despite these flaws, the Blazers have reportedly signed Green to a guaranteed contract for the upcoming season.

Apparently feeling that four point guards weren't enough, last weekend the Blazers signed Steve Blake to a 2-year contract with a team option for the 3rd year.

Although Pritchard has indicated that Jack may see some minutes at the off guard position, and Koponen will spend next season in Europe, I find it hard to believe the Blazers want to carry four point guards next year. I also think it's unlikely that all three of Jack, Sergio and Blake factor into the team's long-term plan. Pritchard may have a plan, but to me this situation looks like a big mess. A trade seems probable.

I think Jarrett Jack has the highest trade value of any of our point guards. Subjectivly measuring the trade value of the league's point guards based on production, age, character and salary, I'd rank them something like this:

1. Chris Paul
2. Deron Williams
3. Steve Nash
4. Gilbert Arenas
5. Tony Parker
6. Jason Kidd
7. Chauncey Billups
8. Kirk Hinrich
9. Baron Davis
10. Mike Conley
11. TJ Ford
12. Raymond Felton
13. Jason Terry
14. Andre Miller
15. Mo Williams
16. Acie Law
17. Mike Bibby
18. Randy Foye
19. Stephon Marbury

Jarrett Jack falls in somewhere around #20-24, in a group that includes Luke Ridnour, Devin Harris, Monta Ellis, Jose Calderon and maybe Rafer Alston, Jameer Nelson, Marcus Williams and Rajon Rondo.

There are around 7 teams for whom Jack would be a significant upgrade at point guard:
1. Cleveland
2. Boston
3. Miami (Williams is aging and oft-injured)
4. LA Clippers
5. LA Lakers (unless Crittenton turns out to be good)
6. Denver
7. Indiana

Plus a few others that have mediocre or unproven talent:
1. Atlanta
2. Houston
3. Boston
4. Minnesota
5. Seattle

So there are at least a handful of teams out there who should be willing to part with something of value to get Jack.

It's more difficult to measure Sergio's trade value. There were allegedly inquiries about him from multiple teams last season. Some enthusiastic Blazer fans think he's the next Steve Nash. After watching him in summer league, I'd take the first decent offer that came along. Sergio makes some highlight-quality plays, but he can't shoot, he doesn't play good defense, and his decision-making in the half court is often questionable. In the summer league game against the Suns, he made very poor decisions on two plays late in the game. On the first, after Sergio launched a long jumper from the top of the circle and Phoenix grabbed the long rebound, Sergio's man took off down the floor. Instead of hustling back to prevent the layup, Sergio ran forward to try for a steal - and was unsuccessful. On another possession late in the game, Sergio dribbled the shot clock down under 5 seconds and, instead of penetrating or entering the ball into the post, launched a step-back jumper, which he missed. These type of mental errors are costly. With his lack of athleticism and shooting ability, Sergio will have to become a flawless decision-maker if he's going to be a quality starting point guard. I'm not sure he's going to get there.

Blake, Koponen and Green have little to no trade value. Green and Koponen were late draft picks, and didn't blow anybody away in summer league. If anybody really wanted Blake, they could have offered him the MLE.

So I'm looking for Jack or Sergio to be moved, if not before the season, then at least within the next year. One incentive for the Blazers to get rid of Jack is that his contract expires in 2009. If he's the starting point guard, he's going to command a contract in the $6-$8 million range. Even as an unsigned free agent, he would count for around $6 million against the Blazers' cap that summer. Sergio will still be on his rookie contract in 2009, and will only use $1.9 million of cap space. Steve Blake's team option could be declined in order to preserve cap space.