Top 20 Draft Prospects

The following list ranks my top 20 prospects in the 2007 NBA Draft. This is not a mock draft. I am not predicting where any particular player will be drafted and I am not considering any particular team’s needs.

1. Greg Oden.

1a. Kevin Durant.

My thoughts on the Oden/Durant debate can be found here:
http://returntoblazermania.blogspot.com/2007/06/oden-or-durant.html

I give Oden a very slight edge because his interior defense and rebounding will give his team a chance to compete for championships. I think Kevin Durant will become one of the NBA’s all-time greatest players. But dominant big men win championships.

3. Al Horford. Horford is an obvious choice at #3. He grabbed nearly 10 rebounds a game, a remarkable stat given that he played only 27 minutes a night and had to compete with Joakim Noah for those boards. Horford has an above average back-to-the-basket post game and a nice midrange jumper. Horford’s ceiling is somewhere below Elton Brand, and his floor is somewhere above Udonis Haslem. He has all-star potential, helped by the likelihood that he’ll end up in the Eastern Conference.

4. Yi Jianlian. For all the talk of depth in this draft, the talent drops steeply after Oden/Durant, and drops again after Horford. Yi is the biggest wildcard in this draft. He possesses a rare combination of size, skill and athleticism. He will likely take a little longer to adjust to the NBA than many of his fellow draftees, but he should develop into a solid contributor who can score going to the basket or from the perimeter.

5. Corey Brewer. Brewer is widely regarded as the best perimeter defender in the draft. On offense, he can do a little of everything, and excels in transition. Brewer will be a lockdown defender who can score an efficient 15 points a game. I’d compare him to a higher-scoring Bruce Bowen, but let’s see Brewer endanger a few careers with cheap shots before we get all carried away.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdxXvkMB6gA

6. Mike Conley Jr. Conley performed impressively in his freshman season, carrying the Buckeyes to the final game of the NCAA tournament. Oden logged 20 minutes or less in OSU’s tournament games against Georgetown and Tennessee, leaving Conley to shoulder the load. Conley displayed remarkable quickness and a knack for getting to the foul line. He’s a solid distributor and penetrator. His outside shot needs work. Conley isn’t as good as Chris Paul or Deron Williams, but he will be an above average starting point guard in a year or two.

7. Al Thornton. Thornton has the attitude, athleticism and skill set to be a proficient scorer. He attacks the basket like a maniac, and can also shoot the 3. He’s ready to play now. This is just awesome:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBBBw3OoFrQ

8. Jeff Green. Green will be a nice role player. He’s not going to be a huge scorer or rebounder in the NBA, but he has a high basketball IQ and he know how to win. He’s an excellent passer and team player.

9. Spencer Hawes. This year’s number one big white stiff! Actually, Hawes moves pretty well and has a nice offensive repertoire. He can block shots, and if he weren’t such a pathetic rebounder, I might rate him even higher. Hawes is better than several current starting centers in the League.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhuFhACWg2E

10. Acie Law. I’ll let Steven Danley handle this one for me:

"When we were preparing to play Texas A. & M. in the tournament, the scouting report pointed out an amazing stat. In the last two minutes of close basketball games, Law outscored the entire opposing team. It wasn't until we actually played him that I understood what that stat meant. For most of the game Law was content to set up his teammates, trying to involve everyone in the game. Coming down the stretch in the second half he went for the jugular and ran off a couple of quick buckets to put us away. Say what you want about his skills or his quickness, but if you have to win a game, you want this kid on the court."

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-25-103/To-Opponents--Acie-Law-is-the-Truth.html

11. Joakim Noah. I never liked this guy, even before his epileptic fit:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQ3y5hTHuP4

He’ll be a good defender and rebounder, as well as an embarrassment to a franchise.

12. Brandan Wright. Until recently, many sites had Wright projected as high as #3, comparing him to Chris Bosh. Wright is actually a lot like Bosh, only without the basketball skills and the desire to rebound. He’ll score around the basket and block a few shots.

13. Thaddeus Young. Young is a couple of years away from contributing, but he has an NBA body and he can shoot from outside.

14. Aaron Brooks. Brooks is a 2nd round talent, but if I don’t create some 1st round buzz for him, who will?

15-16. Marco Bellinelli/Tiago Splitter/Marc Gasol/Rudy Fernandez. I realize I just listed four guys for two spots. I’ll predict two of these guys will be decent, and two will suck. I’m not going to try to guess which two based on youtube clips and the opening paragraphs of Chad Ford columns that I’m too cheap to pay for full access to.

17. Sean Williams. Williams blocked 5 shots a game before getting booted off his team. He’s probably capable of blocking a few in the NBA too. Sounds like an Eddie Griffin-type player. He can ride shotgun in Griffin’s Escalade.

http://sports.outsidethebeltway.com/2006/07/eddie-griffin-driving-while-masturbating/

18. Josh McRoberts. I’ve been making fun of this guy since the day he arrived on the Duke campus. He’s the latest incarnation of the Big Goofy Duke White Guy. Watched a Duke game lately? I don’t even think they’re offering scholarships to black players anymore. But now that it comes down to draft day, and all the really good prospects are gone, McRoberts doesn’t look so bad anymore. While his scoring and rebounding aren’t going to wow anybody, he did average a very impressive 3.5 assists and 2.5 blocks last season.


19. Julian Wright. Blip…Blip…Blip…Beep…Beep!...Beeeepp!!...BEEEEPPP!!!!

Sorry, the DMD (Darius Miles Detector) is really going berserk here. Really athletic? Check. Can’t shoot? Check. Kind of an idiot? Check.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTqVjbEFh_s


20. Jared Dudley. Dudley averaged 19 and 8 boards on his way to being the ACC Player of the Year. Josh Howard comes to mind. Dudley’s a competitor, and he’ll find a spot in someone’s rotation. He won’t be quite the steal that Howard was for Dallas, but he’ll be a good value pick late in the first round.

Busts:

Nick Young – I watched USC play at least 5 times this year and it never crossed my mind that Nick Young was an NBA talent.

Rodney Stuckey – A tweener from a tiny college whose NBA comparison on ww.nbadraft.net is DeJuan Wagner.

Javaris Crittenton – A turnover prone, shoot-first point guard.

Worth a flier:

Glen Davis, aka Big Baby. Let me get this straight. A year ago, a fat Glen Davis was considered a potential lottery pick. Now he’s lost something like 50 pounds, and he’s considered a 2nd rounder? Davis will make a roster.

Alando Tucker – Once considered a Naismith candidate, got hurt near the end of the season.