Roster Analysis

I’d like to think Pritchard can make another move or two before the season starts, but let’s take a look at what the Blazers have right now:

12 Guaranteed Contracts:

C – Greg Oden, Joel Pryzbilla, Raef Lafrentz
PF – LaMarcus Aldridge, Channing Frye
SF – James Jones, Darius Miles
SG – Brandon Roy, Martell Webster
PG – Jarrett Jack, Sergio Rodriguez, Steve Francis

2 Euros Selected in the 1st round:

PG – Petteri Koponen
SG - Rudy Fernandez

2 Second Round Picks:

PF- Josh McRoberts
PG – Taurean Green

3 Free Agents:

SF - Ime Udoka, Travis Outlaw
C - Jamal Magloire

This gives us a total of 19 players.

Jamal Magloire will not be re-signed. Rudy Fernandez will stay in Europe. That give us 17.

We won’t see both Koponen and Green on the roster this year. Either Koponen will stay in Europe or Green will be cut. That narrows it to 16.

Reportedly, we will try to buy out Steve Francis. Assuming that happens, we’d be down to 15.

I will be shocked if McRoberts doesn’t make the roster. I think he was a steal. I also think we should re-sign Ime (2 years, $2 million per) and Outlaw (4 years, $5 million per). We don’t want to play James Jones 40 minutes a night.

So my opening day depth chart looks like:

C- Oden/Pryzbilla/Lafrentz
PF- Aldridge/Outlaw/Frye/McRoberts
SF- Jones/Udoka/Miles
SG- Roy/Webster
PG- Jack/Sergio/Green

I see two serious weaknesses here: (i) youth, and (ii) lack of talent at the small forward position. Ten of our fifteen players are 23 or younger (actually 9, Frye just turned 24), including at least four starters. All that youth is great for the future of the franchise, but it will be tough to win a lot of games in the short term. This problem will take care of itself over the next few years.

The Blazers won’t be a contender until they upgrade at the small forward position. If Travis Outlaw or Martell Webster were to make huge strides over the next couple of seasons, that would work. Rudy Fernandez might be able to start alongside Roy in a year or two. But most likely, we’ll need to acquire another player through a trade or free agency. Our chances of bringing someone in this year fell significantly when we traded Z-Bo to New York. I’d like to see us dangle our tradeable non-core assets (Frye, Webster, Sergio, Fernandez, Koponen, Outlaw) in hopes of landing a veteran small forward that could help us right away (but young enough to still be a contributor four or five years down the road.) Rashard Lewis would be ideal, as would Tayshaun Prince. Gerald Wallace or Andres Nocioni could work.