Pryzbilla & Jack for #6

Today's hot rumor suggests the Blazers and Bucks have discussed or considered a deal that would send Joel Pryzbilla and Jarrett Jack to Milwaukee for the #6 pick and Dan Gadzuric's corpse. I strongly doubt this deal will happen, but let's consider the ramifications of a trade like this.

I think this is a good deal for the Blazers if, and only if, they have a plan in place to replace Jack at the point. The problem with this scenario, and others involving Jack, is that they leave us scrambling to find starters for both the small forward and point guard positions.

I don't think Sergio Rodriguez or Dan Dickau can take us to the playoffs next year as the starter. Signing Steve Blake as the replacement starter would be a step backward, or at best a sideways move, as I've argued in my point guard post. So Portland either be (i) rolling the dice with Sergio, (ii) hoping Conley slides to #6, (iii) trading whatever tradeable assets we'd have left (Zach, Martell) to acquire a veteran point guard, or (iv) signing a veteran free agent within the mid-level exception (Blake is the best of the bunch. Jason Hart, Smush Parker and Chucky Atkins are also infinitely avaiable).

Pryzbilla is overpaid, considering he hardly made it onto the floor last season. Even when his scrotal region was healthy enough for him to compete, the team played 4-on-5 at the offensive end of the court. (Stat geeks, has anyone ever averaged both fewer points (2.0) and more blocked shots (1.5) than Joel did last season?) But I still think he brings some value to the Blazers (especially if we draft Durant, which I'm assuming we won't). At Ohio State, Oden frequently found himself in foul trouble, and occasionally became fatigued, as pointed out approximately 700 times by the broadcasters in the championship game against Florida. Between foul trouble, fatigue, and possible injury or occasional rookie benching, Portland will have plenty of room for a backup center. I don't believe Zach Randolph figures into the Blazers' long-term plans, so Aldridge needs to be the starting 4, not the backup 5. I haven't heard any talk of re-signing Magloire. I don't think we want LaFrentz or Gadzuric picking up all those minutes. So Joel does have some value to Portland, and his absence would leave another hole to fill.

On the positive side, the #6 pick is likely to yield a talented player. Oden, Durant and Al Horford will definitely be off the board. Yi Jianlian is an intriguing prospect, but he's a power forward and doesn't fit a need for us. Joakim Noah and Brandan Wright don't fit, either (and aren't going to be all that good. I wouldn't use a top-10 pick on either of these guys). That leaves, possibly, Conley, Corey Brewer and/or Jeff Green. Conley would make sense here, since he fills the point guard gap, has a higher upside than Jack, and is Oden's buddy. Also, we could fill the small forward need by trading Z-Bo. If the choice is between Brewer and Green, I'd take Brewer because of his superior perimeter defense and shooting ability.

A couple of points to remember- we're not loading up for a championship run this season or even next season. Teams full of rookies and young players don't win championships in the NBA. So we can trot Ime Udoka out as our starting 3, or Steve Blake as our point guard as a short-term solution, with an eye on upgrading to a more talented veteran down the road. But we're not going to be terrible anymore, either. Our days of landing top-5 draft picks are almost certainly over. So, while we're not desperate to make a move, our chances of landing high-quality young talent after this season are probably slim. Making the right moves with Z-Bo and Jack could make the difference between Portland being a contender, or a champion. So don't screw it up, Prichard.