NBA Draft 2007 - Small Forwards

According to multiple sources, Kevin Pritchard is working hard to acquire a second lottery pick in this year's draft. The Blazers need an upgrade at small forward, and there are several good prospects in this draft. Following is my analysis of the top six small forwards:

Kevin Durant, Texas-

Far and away the 2nd-best prospect in the draft, he would have gone #1 in 8 of the last 9 drafts. See the Oden v. Durant post for more.

Corey Brewer, Florida-

Positives: reputed to be a lockdown defender, Brewer can also put the ball on the floor, finish in transition, and has decent touch on the perimeter. He won two national championships and was the MOP of the 2007 Final Four.

Negatives: I'm not convinced he'll be a 3-point threat in the NBA. He shot just 33.6% from 3 his senior season. He needs to get in the weight room (as does Durant). He wore a T-shirt under his jersey in college, suggesting he's none too proud of his physique.

Bottom line: Brewer brings a lot to the table at both ends of the floor and is a proven winner. Brewer's weaknesses - perimeter shooting and upper body strength - can be improved with enough work. Brewer's strengths - quickness, length, defensive tenacity - are more innate qualities, and set him apart from his draft competition. If Portland somehow lands Boston's #5 pick, this would be the small forward I'd take. (We'd also have to consider Conley Jr. at #5, especially if we move Jarrett Jack.)

Al Thornton, FSU -

I have to admit, I didn't watch a single Florida State game this season. I've been won over by his stats and a couple of youtube clips. Thornton put up 20 a game in the ACC on 53% shooting and 44% from deep. He also jumped over some guy's head and dunked on him. If Brewer's off the board, I'm rolling the dice on this guy. He could give the Blazers some serious scoring punch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBBBw3OoFrQ

Jeff Green, Georgetown -

Strengths- He's a smart player and he led Georgetown to a Final Four. He gets his teammates involved, and wouldn't take a lot of shots away from Aldridge and Oden.

Weakness- He's not much of an outside shooter, and he's a bit of a tweener. I don't know if he can defend NBA small forwards. He also travelled against Vandy. His statistics as a junior were exactly the same as when he was a freshman. He just strikes me as a role player. (Admission- I'd made that same comment about Brandon Roy prior to last year's draft.)

Bottom Line: The latest mock drafts at nbadraft.net and draftexpress.com have Green going to Boston at #5. I think that's too high. If Portland gets the #11 pick from Atlanta, and Green is still around, then I give him a look.

Thaddeus Young, Georgia Tech-

Strengths- Young is a physical specimen. As a freshman, he scored 14 a game and shot 42% from three. He has the physical capability to be a big-time scorer and a solid defender.

Weaknesses- Raw, especially compared to the four guys I have rated ahead of him. I'm not convinced he has the skill set and mental game needed to contribute right away. Georgia Tech had one of the most talented teams in the country this year and barely made the NCAA tournament. Can't pin it all on Young, but his team's performance reflects poorly on all those guys (especially Javaris Crittendon, in my mind).

Bottom line: I think he'd have been a top ten pick in next year's draft if he'd gone back to school. Worth a pick in the teens if the Blazers wind up there somehow.

Julian Wright, Kansas-

Great athlete, can't shoot. Throw in a microfracture surgery, and you've got Darius Miles. I have very little interest in this guy.

This play alone dropped him 10 spots on my draft board:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTqVjbEFh_s

To be fair, a Darius Miles with a good attitude is probably worth a pick in the 15-20 range.

Some other guys that would be worth taking with a late 1st or early 2nd:
Alando Tucker
Jared Dudley