Good Time of Year

Opening the Oregonian today led to a surprising and welcome sight. Actual sports news and thoughts that were relevant to sports fans. I can only take so much on fishing and brief stories from around the baseball world. With football underway and the Blazers training camp nearing, things are looking up in Oregon.

All I ask of the Mariners is to keep me interested until August so they can then turn it over to football...which they've done.

So a quick look at the Oregonian reveals that John Canzano thinks Mike Bellotti has been skating by which I agree with to some degree.

I think it a big time school, Bellotti would have been forced to clean out his desk the day after the arse kicking administered by BYU in the Vegas Bowl, but being the Dean of the Pac-10 gives you a little bit of leeway. Trouble is, since the Fiesta Bowl, arguably Oregon's crowning moment under Bellotti, the team has really been average. For all the money and resources they pour into the program, they haven't necessarily been re-paid with wins. According to the boys at Coaches Hot Seat, Bellotti is behind Mike Riley, Bill Doba, Karl Dorrell, Mike Stoops and Jeff Tedford in cost per win ranking. Not sure what significance that holds, but I think Canzano presents a few valid points on Bellotti.

I would counter that Oregon would be wise to not fall into the never-ending trap of hiring and firing coaches. Getting into that cycle is difficult for programs to get out of and Oregon, despite it's money and resources is probably still a second tier gig (if not lower) nationally. There will always be somewhere higher for a young coach to go. Bellotti was once courted by Notre Dame and Ohio State but stayed with Oregon. That kind of loyalty needs to be re-paid in my mind.

Of course had he gone, Jeff Tedford might have been named coach...nevermind.

------------------------------------UPDATE-----------------------------------------
SI's Stewart Mandel has an interesting idea about Bellotti in this article. He claims, and I think he's spot on, that Phil Knight will have a lot to do with Bellotti's job security. As a huge fan and bigtime booster, I'm sure he'll make his opinion known if things don't improve soon. And Phil's opinion is pretty important in Eugene.


There is another school in Oregon (other than Oregon and Oregon State) and it's Portland State, that urban school in the Big Sky Conference. Previously irrelevant until the arrival of Jerry Glanville, who immediately brought in some style and panache to the program. Tim Walsh was a great man and a good coach, but cmon, it's Jerry Glanville!

Taking a page from the Ducks down the road, Portland State has broken out it's own terrible uniforms. Glanville has some funny comments about the uniforms in this article. I think that Glanville will be a well-liked addition to the sports fraternity in Oregon. Besides, I think he will win at Portland State and bringing Mouse Davis home from Hawaii was a major major coup. Look for PSU to become a good Big Sky team and look further for Oregon and Oregon State to decline to play the Viks in a few years.

Now comes word out of Corvallis of an imminent quarterback battle for the Beavers. Perhaps Riley didn't want to play Canfield last year because he just wasn't that good. I don't know, but the majority of Beaver fans wanted Matt Moore out but the oft maligned senior rebounded to have a pretty good year and left on a high note. Now, Canfield is neck and neck with Lyle Moevao for the QB job.

Oregon State is the only Pac-10 needing to break in a new QB. Optimism is high in Corvallis with several returnees including RB Yvenson Bernard. But the Beavs will roll out an unproven quarterback this fall and that QB will surely cost them a game or two. Canfield has supposedly been the golden child since he first set foot on campus. Moevao has been more of an unknown but has grown on players, coaches and the media.

My guess is that Canfield starts but Moevao gets some playing time and eventually becomes Oregon State's next Jonathan Smith.

In Blazer news, the organization announced a couple of 10 game packages for those unwilling (like me) to fork over the big bucks for season tickets. One of the packages includes a "big game package" which includes teams like Phoenix, San Antonio, Detroit and the like. I guess the question is, would you rather see Portland win or see a good team and maybe lose?

Finally, back to the Ducks. It seams that Oregon is seeking to play Boise State in in China in 2009. Calling it "very Oregon", UO director of football operations says "you like to be on the edge. You like to be the first." Oregon was also the first team on the West Coast to add an indoor practice facility. Also the first team to add a space-age locker-room with a door that opens up and down instead of like those normal wimpy doors other teams have. Unfortunately, they were also the first to have uniforms like this.

However, like the Mo Center I think a game in China is an amazing idea. Yes, China is the new frontier for US sports, everyone is trying to capture that market and the enormous population. But this will be an incredible experience for the Duck players, coaches and staffers. It may also help recruiting if players think they'll have a chance to visit some far off land on the university's dime. I mean China is no Pullman but it's close.

Some Interesting links

Part one and part two of a three-part study of the job Mike Stoops has done at Arizona since taking over for John Mackovic.

He makes some good points but I still hate Arizona and Mike Stoops, mostly because of his comments he made after Oregon escaped Tuscon with a 28-21 win over the Wildcats. In this game, quarterback Kellen Clemens' career was ended with a broken ankle and Dennis Dixon suffered a concusion. Afterwards, Stoops said something to the effect of, "our defense played well, they knocked out two quarterbacks."

When you look at the comments, not terrible but also not classy in the slightest. He should have complimented his defense and not mentioned the injuries or said that he hoped that they could return to the field soon. Instead, he complimented his team for injuring two players. I can't stand Stoops for this and several other reasons.

This is an interesting study though.

Here's a study of the SEC vs. Pac-10 Schedules. He makes some great points regarding the SEC's schedule:

The typical SEC format is 4-4-4: four games against other strong or solid SEC opponents, four games against the dregs of the SEC, and four freebies against out-of-conference weak sisters. And half of the teams play all of those out-of-conference games at home. What does that prove? Nothing.

Sure, LSU is in a conference in which four other teams are ranked, but LSU does not play them all. Georgia and Tennessee may be ranked, but neither is on the LSU schedule. And the only road game of note is at Alabama, which is about the 40th best team in the country. The Tigers' road games are Mississippi State, Tulane, Kentucky, Alabama and Mississippi.

He brings up some interesting points.

Here is a fascinating website studying college football coaches. Click around the site if you are a college football fan, you will not be disappointed. Some highlights for me: The Hippo Standards, a look at salaries and contracts and also a look at 2006 cost per win.
Basically a really cool site for fans of college football and coaching.

Finally, the new basketball coach at Butler is 30, used to work in sales and quit his 9-5 desk job to begin a career in college basketball. I'm 28, a low-level assistant at a small high school in Oregon and want to coach. I'm behind the eight ball.

Finally, finally, Tuesday Morning Quarterback returns!

Pac-10: A Pointless Season?

Everyone says USC is the hands down favorite. Every year, a buddy and I pick the Pac-10 runner-up because we figure USC has got the title in the bag every year. The Pac-10 coaches are not stupid (Mike Stoops is but the rest aren't) and they unanimously voted USC to win the Pac-10. True, there are a few games that could be difficult (possibly at Oregon if they can find a quarterback) and definitely at California on November 10.

The Pac-10 can be broken into four distinct tiers.

A Tier
USC – simply loaded all over the field, particularly on defense where they return 10 starters including all star performers FS Taylor Mays, NT Sedrick Ellis, LB’s Rey Maualuga and Keith Rivers to name a few. John David Booty is back and will probably amass big numbers after a year of experience. Any number of the 10 scholarship running backs could be a breakout performer. To put it simply, the Trojans are obviously loaded and are making a mockery out of the Pac-10 and leaving the rest to play for second and the prestigious Holiday Bowl.


B Tier
Cal – Jeff Tedford has turned Cal into a western powerhouse, one step below USC but a step above everyone else on the west coast. They only return seven starters on offense but they are some big names. Junior Nate Longshore returns after a quietly stellar sophomore season where he passed for over 3,000 yards and 24 TD’s. He’s got great weapons out wide in DeSean Jackson (who is easily one of the most exciting players in the nation), Robert Jordan, LaVelle Hawkins and Sam DeSa. Plus TB Justin Forsett returns for what seems like his 8th season at Berkley. They are a step above everyone else and a step below USC.


C Tier - this is the biggest tier of them all. I figure teams 3-7 are in here.

OSU - despite the fact that their quarterback situation is unsettled, I like OSU at the top of the C Tier. They return 15 starters on offense including stud running back Yvenson Bernard and 2006 breakout performer Sammie Stroughter. Their offensive line is loaded in the middle led by guards Jeremy Perry, Kyle DeVan and Roy Schuening. They should open big holes for Bernard to once again run through. Whoever the quarterback is, Canfield or Moevao, there are plenty of weapons to find and both have been in the system for three years. Mike Riley appears to have things on the rise in Corvallis.

UCLA - UCLA returns 20 starters on offense and defense from a team that went 7-6 last year and lost to Florida State in the Emerald Bowl. Karl Dorrell always appears to be on the hot seat. Dorrell has always been on the hot seat as UCLA’s teams have been erratic. Quarterback Ben Olsen returns as does backup Ryan Cowan, both of whom played last year. TB Chris Markey is one of only three running backs returning with over 1,000 yards rushing and should be a force this season. The defense is the strength but depth is an issue. 10 starters return on “D” but an injury or two could be devastating for UCLA.


Arizona - As a “journalist” I try to be objective but I really can’t stand Mike Stoops. I think he’s arrogant and a blowhard and not that great of a coach. He gets his players so riled up that they make stupid plays and they hurt themselves when they shouldn’t. He can recruit though. Defensively, Arizona has always been good. Antoine Cason is a hard-hitting DB and anchors a fast and tough “D”. It’s the offense that has been brutal for the Wildcats but the addition of Sonny Dykes from Texas Tech should fix that. He’ll inject some life into the offense and possibly help all-everything quarterback Willie Tuitama reach his potential. Of course Dykes works for a Stoops who left Tuitama in a game in which he received a serious concussion. Idiot.

Oregon - I’m a Duck fan so I’ll try to be objective. They’re really good or really bad. I just don’t know. Much of the talk has been on Dennis Dixon and his struggles last year and his decision to go play baseball rather than stick around and do passing drills. I think it was just meant to be a mental escape for Dixon to get away from Eugene so he can get a fresh start this year. All it did was increase the scrutiny and pressure on him as each miscue will be met with a “what if?” shrug from the fans. The focus on Dixon has overshadowed several things in Eugene, namely leadership (is there any?) Chip Kelly (how will his new offense play in the Pac-10?) and Jonathan Stewart (will he get the ball?). There’s talent in Eugene but can they put it all together?

ASU - Did you know Dennis Erickson is coaching ASU? Of course you did, everyone knows that. The coaches gave ASU a ton of love, ranking them fourth in the preseason poll. I don’t see that happening but it won’t take Erickson long to reacquaint himself with the top of the conference. He’s upgraded his talent from what he had at Idaho but they’re still suspect on “D”. They do get most of their tough games at home including Cal, USC and OSU but travel to Oregon and UCLA. They return Rudy Carpenter who is somewhere between what he was as a freshman and what he was last year. He rebounded to have a decent year, tossing 23 TD’s and has nine other offensive starters returning including TB Ryan Torain who rushed for 1,229 yards last year. The defense was soft last year, getting torched by Cal and Oregon but they did a good job later in the season.

D Tier - Washington, Washington State and Stanford. These teams are rebuilding and will probably play the role of spoiler. Washington State is particularly dangerous because I think games in Pullman in late October/early November are difficult games to win. Jim Harbaugh is the new coach at Stanford and is using his mouth to get some attention for the Cardinal. The fact is, they’re terrible and his verbal swipes at big time programs like USC and Michigan isn’t going to endear him to many AD’s and Presidents. Washington has Ty Willingham whom I really like and think is a great man. I don’t know how great of a coach he is but I think he’ll return Washington to respectability if they give him more than three years. It’ll take a bit more time for him to turn that around after Kevin Gilbride flew that thing into the mountain.

Blazers Leapfrog Two

Tip-off is still months away but the Blazers have already leapfrogged two Western Division foes. Kevin Garnett has already been shipped east but now comes word that Elton Brand has ruptured his Achilles tendon.

Neither Minnesota or Los Angeles were playoff teams last year, but neither was Portland. In the quest to reach the playoffs, which is still somewhat of a pipe dream for Portland, they'll have to pass several teams.

The fact that two teams that will presumably be fighting for the eighth playoff spot in the west are now weaker, helps the Blazers immeasurably. And training camp is still months away.

Last year, 42 wins got Golden State a playoff berth. 42 wins is not out of the question for Portland albeit it might be a little high. The fact remains that young teams just struggle to win games...particularly late in the season when the wear and tear on the body takes its toll.

But these two off-season happenings have undoubtedly strengthened Portland's stature in the west and makes the playoffs even that much more of a possibility.

Blog Update

With Blazers news hard to come by, we are going to fill the void by posting about other sports, notably college football and the Oregon Ducks. We'll also comment on other sports stories that are relevant but it will most likely be West Coast centric and even Northwest specific. With that in mind, I'd like to comment on the Pac-10 possibly leaving the BCS:

Commissioner Tom Hansen says that if college football adopts the plus one model the Pac-10 will leave the BCS "no question." I'm hopeful that this is just posturing on Hansen's part but this is ludicrous for several reasons.

1. The Pac-10 is not the SEC. The Pac-10 is essentially USC and nine others. If this happens, I guarantee USC leaves the conference and becomes an independant and the Pac-10 dissolves as a conference not long after.

2. If this was the SEC the football powers that be might listen. The SEC is easily the best conference in college football, produces huge ratings and produces dozens of NFL players each year. The Pac-10 doesn't have the depth or talent that the SEC does. The Pac-10's talent is in their coaches who are innovative and creative offensively.

3. The Rose Bowl ceased to be "traditional" years ago. True, it's still played on New Year's Day but the game has involved a Pac-10 and Big-10 school just three times since 2001. It's time to progress and buy into what the whole world wants to see.

The Pac-10 has tried to remain as traditional as possible. They have balked at adding members and splitting into a North and South. They don't play a conference championship game. They now play each team in football, something that no other big time conference does. In basketball they still play each team twice, once at home and once on the road for a total of 18 conference games. They also still play on the tradtional nights of Thursday and Saturdays with only a few exceptions. You rarely (if ever) see a Pac-10 team playing on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday nights.

As a fan of the more traditional approach, I understand what the Pac-10 is thinking. However I think Hansen's stance is misguided and wrong. The Plus 1 model is actually a worthwhile investment for college football. It gives us a small playoff without getting into the logistics of an eight or 16 team playoff.

The Pac-10 would be wise not to bite the hand that feeds it, and continue to feast off USC in football and UCLA in basketball...as sad as it is to admit.

The New Eastern Conference Favorites?

If this proposed deal goes through, the Boston Celtics have certainly joined the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference. They might have mortgaged the future to do so, but in the immediate future, say, the next two or three years, they've become extremely relevant.

Landing Garnett to team with Paul Pierce and Ray Allen gives Boston three superstars, including two in Pierce and Garnett who are still among the top at their positions. Ray Allen continues to be a good scorer and excellent shooter, capable of putting up big numbers.

I like that Boston is attempting a run at the Eastern crown. The (L)eastern conference has played the doormat to the Western Conference for too long and some balance would do the league some good. As would some good publicity for a change.

But, is it enough to get them to the finals and contend? Absolutely it is. For the next two to three years while KG and Pierce continue in their primes and Allen continues to be a very good NBA player, Boston has enough to challenge everyone in the East. The question is, have the Eastern contenders improved at all?

For the defending eastern conference champs, they haven't improved their roster at all. Lebron is still Lebron but as evidenced by the San Antonio massacre, he can't do it alone. Zydrunas Illgauskus, Drew Gooden and Boobie Gibson aren't enough. How could that team compete with a trio like Boston's?

Some say Detroit needs to blow it up and start again. I disagree, they're still talented enough to contend because their perimeter is still solid and 'Sheed would be a good matchup for KG. A Detroit/Boston final is a distinct possibility.

Despite having Dwayne Wade, Miami is in trouble. Their key players are getting older or aren't that good. Shaq can't dominate the way he used to and now that the refs will be scrutinized to no end (even more than they were in the '07 playoffs) Dwayne Wade will not draw a foul every time someone looks at him. His forays to the rim will not end with a whistle with every moan or arm flail as they have in the past.

It all adds up to a good chance for Boston to make a run. True, they've sold the future to make a run now but when the fan base is threatening a mutiny, you have to at least attempt to get better. Danny Ainge has done that and now he can rest a little easier having essentially traded Brandon Roy for Sebastian Telfair and Theo Ratliff because those two helped him later land KG (if the deal goes through).

Of course, Doc Rivers still coaches the Celts and if you read certain writers, they'll tell you he is a grease fire. So having three great players might not do a bit of good. Only time will tell but for the first time in several years, things are looking up in Boston.

--------------------------UPDATE-------------------------
Truehoop is reporting that now Al Jefferson may not be included in the deal. If this is the case, Boston looks like the definitive favorite in the East in my mind. A lineup of Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Jefferson and KG would be formidable for the whole league, not just the East.

Tim Donaghy - Dirty Ref

Tim Donaghy, the NBA referee under investigation by the FBI for influencing the point spread of basketball games he officiated, is the same referee that engaged in a post-game shouting match with Rasheed Wallace a few years back. That incident led to a 7-game suspension for Sheed, and another black eye for the Portland franchise. As I recall, Sheed claimed Donaghy instigated the argument. Maybe we should have listened to him.

Non-Blazer Summer League Evaluations

After returning from Vegas and getting back into some semblance of a routine, here are my non-Blazer Summer League evaluations.

Kevin Durant – Truly an exciting player despite a poor shooting performance. He’s a scary offensive player for the defense because he’s a deadly shooter. I think in Vegas he forced some shots, settled for outside jumpers and didn’t force the issue too much. I think when he adds some bulk you’ll see him attack the rim more because he’ll be more durable. I also think Seattle didn’t do a good job utilizing him in the halfcourt set. They ran him off horizontal screens at the foul line towards the wing creating a tough passing angle from the top, allowing his defender to easily deny him the ball and knock away passes. I think they should have put him on the block and had a post player screen down for him and allow him to read the defender. He would have had about four or five options coming off the screen. Or they could have put him in the corner and done the same kind of thing. He will be a superduper star in no time…if he's not already.

Jeff Green – He was as aggressive on Sunday evening against Portland as I’ve ever seen and really showcased his abilities. He attacked the glass off the dribble, used his jumper effectively and showed his all-around abilities. This was as good as I’ve seen him play. Georgetown’s offensive scheme wasn’t conducive to individuality (Princeton-type offenses are predicated on backcutting and unselfishness) and Green probably suffered from that slightly. He finished the summer league with authority and should team with Kevin Durant to make one of the most devastating and powerful perimeter combos in the league for the next 10-15 years.

Corey Brewer – I really liked Brewer the two times I saw him. He’s an exceptional athlete and did several things well. He showed an ability to attack the rim (even though a couple of times he resorted to circus/lucky shots to finish) and a good outside jumper. Defensively he played well, going against Rudy Gay in the Memphis game. Gay made some great shots against Brewer on his way to 26 points. He also got into the middle and fed the big guys well. I would have loved to get Brewer in Portland to let Jack, Roy, Brewer, Aldridge and Oden grow together for the next 15 years. That would have been a sweet lineup. I think Minnesota got a nice pickup there.

Randy Foye – Had an exceptional summer league and was a deadly shooter. For some reason Memphis went underneath the ball screens and Foye lit them up. Mike Conley repeatedly went underneath the ball screens and Foye had 28 points on 12-17 shooting…many of which were from the perimeter. Foye was Minnesota’s second leading scorer and shot a ridiculous 53% from the three point arc. Don’t ask me why Memphis continually went under the screens rather than hedging and making Foye give the ball up.

Mike Conley – The knock on him coming in was his shooting and that still holds true. Shot poorly (39.8%) from the field and averaged 11.4 points per game. He’s jet quick and does a great job getting into the middle. He’s a great athlete and I like how he stays under control around the rim by coming off a two-foot jump stop. This allows him to be strong around the rim…even though he didn’t finish as well as he did at OSU - but I think that will come. His perimeter shooting was atrocious and this comes from a Conley fan. He was huge for Ohio State last year and I think he’s a great pick for Memphis.

Aaron Brooks – He had an incredible summer league. Easily one of the quickest players in the league and continues to impress with his shooting. Still needs to work on not fading on his pull up threes (it’s tough because he’s so quick that his momentum carries him to the side on his pull up jumpers). I think he’ll fit in with Houston right away and I know T-Mac will demand the ball, but I think “D’s” will have to respect Brooks and his abilities to penetrate. He also excels at flip shots and scoop shots in the paint (at barely 6-0 he needs to be) which makes him a better finisher than people may think. There were countless times in Vegas when Brooks would probe the defense on the dribble and create a wideopen shot on the perimeter without even a screen set. Steve Novak was a primary beneficiary of Brooks’ penetration.

Oleksiy Pecherov – In the first game we watched of the summer league, we were making fun of Pecherov for being ugly. Moments later our jaws hit the floor when he caught the ball out high and like a flash attacked the rim and got an easy lay-up. The fact that he’s listed at 7-0 impressed us even more because he moved like a small forward. He went on to finish with 26 points and 14 boards in that game. He also hit 3-5 from the three-point line which impressed me as well. Pecherov appeared to be reasonably quick with a good skillset. He’s a prospect I will be interested in seeing in the next few years.

Javaris Crittenton – He was known as an erratic player at Georgia Tech but I thought he had a good summer league. He led a sorry Lakers club in scoring and showed no problems putting up a ton of shots. He teamed with Jordan Farmer to form a pretty good backcourt duo. There were many times that Crittenton split the defense on high screens to get into the lane freeing up jump shooters and the low post players. He finished with 28 points, three assists and three turnovers and carried them down the stretch against the Pistons. He finished with 17 points but shot poorly from field and the foul line. He’s a great scorer but unfortunately the Lakers already have someone like that so I’m not sure how he’ll fit in next year.

Email exchange- state of the roster

Here's the text of an email string between Mark and I. Mark's emails in blue:

Outlaw signed. 3 years, $12 million. No other details. Great price, especially if that 3rd year turns out to be a team option.

Sounds good to me. What is our perimeter looking like now?

1. Jack
2. Blake
3. Sergio
4. Roy
5. Martell
6. Jones
7. Outlaw
8. Green

Am I missing anyone?


The roster is full at 15 guaranteed contracts now. Unless we make another trade, we have:

PG: Jack / Blake / Rodriguez / Green
SG: Roy / Webster
SF: Jones / Outlaw / Miles
PF: Aldridge / Frye / McRoberts
C: Ode-stertag / Pryzbilla / Lafrentz

Freeland, Fernandez and Koponen are in Europe. Ime is gone.

I like that group. It’s a young group for sure but I think it’s a solid group of guys who are of high character and there are some skillsets that will mesh together with some time to grow.

The more I think about it, the more I’m okay with the Blake signing. I think Jon underestimates him slightly and I certainly don’t think he’s a superstar but he can play at this level. I think they envision Jack playing the 1 and the 2 and Roy playing all three. I think there will be times when you see Blake, Jack and Roy out there together because Martell and Travis still have the tendency to float out of it mentally.

I guess Jones is a wildcard because I believe he’s only 26 but my vision of him is some washed up old timer. I don’t know a thing about him only that he didn’t play much at all for Phoenix.

I'm okay with the Blake signing because the 3rd year is a team option. I still don't think we really needed him, but at least it didn't screw up our cap space. My only concern is that Jack is the kind of guy who plays better if he's not looking over his shoulder and worrying about his minutes getting stolen. That seems to be a huge problem for Ridnour in Seattle. Otherwise, I'm fine with the signing. Blake is a high character guy who will work hard and bring some leadership, and he's a better 3-point shooter than Jack. The depth will be nice, because I wouldn't want to give big minutes to Sergio if Jack got hurt. I could see us using Jack and Blake to close out games - both those guys probably have a little better mental toughness than Travis or James Jones.

Remember when Walt Williams played for Portland? That's what Jones reminds me of. Decent sized 3-point specialist, looks kind of awkward running the floor. Not terrible, but not really great either. Can play 20 or 30 minutes without really hurting your team. He'll occasionally block a shot. He's a reasonably priced stop-gap for two years until Travis or Martell develop or we sign a big free agent.

Our roster is now almost entirely devoid of idiots. Miles needs to retire.

Blazers Sign Outlaw

Travis Outlaw re-signed with the Blazers for approximately $12 million over 3 seasons. No word yet on whether the final year is a team option. Either way, I think this is a fantastic signing, especially considering the kind of money Jason Kapono made this offseason.

The Blazers' Point Guard Situation - Who Will Be Traded?

Jarret Jack started 79 games for the Blazers last season, averaging 12 points and 5.3 assists while shooting 45% from the field. Jack is 23 years old, and last season was his second in the NBA.

Jack's backup was 21-year-old Sergio Rodriguez, who the Blazers drafted in the first round of the 2006 draft. Sergio showed some potential as a rookie, and has become a fan favorite.

Late in the first round of the 2007 draft, the Blazers traded up to draft Peteri Koponen, a young Finnish point guard. Koponen had a decent showing in summer league, playing primarily off the ball because the summer league roster was loaded with point guards. He's probably a better shooter than Jack or Sergio. The Blazers will keep Koponen in Europe for at least another year.

In the second round of the 2007 draft, the Blazers selected Taurean Green, a smallish point guard and two-time national champion at Florida. Green was scrappy in summer league, and shot the ball well from deep. However, his passing, ability to run an NBA team, and defensive quickness are all suspect. Despite these flaws, the Blazers have reportedly signed Green to a guaranteed contract for the upcoming season.

Apparently feeling that four point guards weren't enough, last weekend the Blazers signed Steve Blake to a 2-year contract with a team option for the 3rd year.

Although Pritchard has indicated that Jack may see some minutes at the off guard position, and Koponen will spend next season in Europe, I find it hard to believe the Blazers want to carry four point guards next year. I also think it's unlikely that all three of Jack, Sergio and Blake factor into the team's long-term plan. Pritchard may have a plan, but to me this situation looks like a big mess. A trade seems probable.

I think Jarrett Jack has the highest trade value of any of our point guards. Subjectivly measuring the trade value of the league's point guards based on production, age, character and salary, I'd rank them something like this:

1. Chris Paul
2. Deron Williams
3. Steve Nash
4. Gilbert Arenas
5. Tony Parker
6. Jason Kidd
7. Chauncey Billups
8. Kirk Hinrich
9. Baron Davis
10. Mike Conley
11. TJ Ford
12. Raymond Felton
13. Jason Terry
14. Andre Miller
15. Mo Williams
16. Acie Law
17. Mike Bibby
18. Randy Foye
19. Stephon Marbury

Jarrett Jack falls in somewhere around #20-24, in a group that includes Luke Ridnour, Devin Harris, Monta Ellis, Jose Calderon and maybe Rafer Alston, Jameer Nelson, Marcus Williams and Rajon Rondo.

There are around 7 teams for whom Jack would be a significant upgrade at point guard:
1. Cleveland
2. Boston
3. Miami (Williams is aging and oft-injured)
4. LA Clippers
5. LA Lakers (unless Crittenton turns out to be good)
6. Denver
7. Indiana

Plus a few others that have mediocre or unproven talent:
1. Atlanta
2. Houston
3. Boston
4. Minnesota
5. Seattle

So there are at least a handful of teams out there who should be willing to part with something of value to get Jack.

It's more difficult to measure Sergio's trade value. There were allegedly inquiries about him from multiple teams last season. Some enthusiastic Blazer fans think he's the next Steve Nash. After watching him in summer league, I'd take the first decent offer that came along. Sergio makes some highlight-quality plays, but he can't shoot, he doesn't play good defense, and his decision-making in the half court is often questionable. In the summer league game against the Suns, he made very poor decisions on two plays late in the game. On the first, after Sergio launched a long jumper from the top of the circle and Phoenix grabbed the long rebound, Sergio's man took off down the floor. Instead of hustling back to prevent the layup, Sergio ran forward to try for a steal - and was unsuccessful. On another possession late in the game, Sergio dribbled the shot clock down under 5 seconds and, instead of penetrating or entering the ball into the post, launched a step-back jumper, which he missed. These type of mental errors are costly. With his lack of athleticism and shooting ability, Sergio will have to become a flawless decision-maker if he's going to be a quality starting point guard. I'm not sure he's going to get there.

Blake, Koponen and Green have little to no trade value. Green and Koponen were late draft picks, and didn't blow anybody away in summer league. If anybody really wanted Blake, they could have offered him the MLE.

So I'm looking for Jack or Sergio to be moved, if not before the season, then at least within the next year. One incentive for the Blazers to get rid of Jack is that his contract expires in 2009. If he's the starting point guard, he's going to command a contract in the $6-$8 million range. Even as an unsigned free agent, he would count for around $6 million against the Blazers' cap that summer. Sergio will still be on his rookie contract in 2009, and will only use $1.9 million of cap space. Steve Blake's team option could be declined in order to preserve cap space.

Vegas! Part Deux

Yes we've returned from Vegas and assimilating back into the real world has been difficult. I arrived home at 3:30am on Monday only to find my 3-yr old in my spot in bed. I squeezed my way into bed for a quick rest before work. However my 10-month old had other ideas and woke up around 5:00am ready to play. He had some breakfast and was ready for the world...I was not though.

Then last night, he woke up again, this time at 2:15 and stayed awake until about 4:30 (as did I) before falling asleep. I've been at work both days, physically anyway, but my brain is tapioca and several people have commented on my barely opened, extremely bloodshot eyes. I do not look good.

But the trip to Vegas was fun. We met up with old friends and had a good time watching and playing basketball and cheaply gambling a small chunk of our paychecks away.

Here are some of the non-NBA summer league highlights:

• Pierre Lawrence - our buddy Kevin (a non-drinker, non-smoker, father of two little girls) was approached by the quintessential Vegas chick on Thursday night. She had tight pants, a tight, low-cut shirt, a cigarette in one hand and one of those giant fruity drinks in the novelty cups in the other. She asked Kevin if his name was Pierre from the Mirage. Jon laughed directly into her face and I claimed that his name was Jacque but thus, Pierre Lawrence was born at the Stratosphere.


• Bill Russell's minivan. I don't know why this tickled me so much but to see one of the NBA's all time greats parked in a modest minivan right next to me in a near-empty parking lot is something I won't soon forget. Russell seemed like a fun guy, he spent most of the game laughing and joking with his friend and wife while watching the Celts. I'm dying to know what was on the radio in his minivan.


• Travel nightmares - all of us had trouble arriving and leaving Vegas. My flight out of Portland was delayed for an hour and a half because of a thunder and lightning storm directly over PDX. I was originally supposed to arrive into Vegas a little after 1:00am but didn't get there until after 2:00. Matt nearly missed his flight from Eugene because the flight from Phoenix to Eugene was 3 hours late. He finally arrived at the Stratosphere around 3:15am. Both Jon and Kevin/Pierre were delayed leaving Dallas and Tulsa respectively. Returning to our homes was brutal but again, Matt had the worst of it. His plane was just about ready to leave when it blew a tire all over the runway and had to return to the tarmac. The debris on the runway caused a backup of jets including mine, delaying my takeoff by about 40 minutes (I was already 30 minutes delayed leaving so this put me a good hour and 15 minutes behind schedule). I finally took off and arrived into Portland at about 2:45 and arrived home about 3:30. Sadly, Matt's flight did not leave and he was forced to stay another night in Vegas and arrived at his hotel at 3:30am. On a positive note, he did get to talk with Joel "Lunch Bucket" Freeland who was hopeful of playing for Portland but not optimistic after an underwhelming summer league.


• Our intense games of 2 on 2 on Friday. And by intense I mean lazy and foul-ridden with missed shots galore. It was fun and we wore each other out. My wife has taken to calling me Uncle Rico after the uncle in Napolean Dynamite whom claims his high school football team could have taken state had the coach played him at quarterback. I must admit, some of the similarities are there.


• Robert Swift looks like he got lost on his way to Lollapalooza 1996. He has a gnatty red ponytail, tattoos covering most of his arms and holes in his face from all the piercings. He just looks slightly out of place on an NBA bench.


• I got $20 up on $2 roulette but lost it all within an hour. It was fun and infinitely more enjoyable pressing buttons on a slot machine and losing money, $0.5 at a time.
• I loved the set up of gyms in Vegas. Despite the fact that the Thomas and Mack Center stairs were a nightmare to scale (Bill Russell had no problems getting up them but I did) the set up allowed visitors to easily go from gym to gym during timeouts, halftimes and blowouts. The staggered starts meant that when one game finished you could bolt over to the other gym to catch the last quarter of the other game. When that game finished you could back over to the other gym in time to catch the start of that game.

I will be back with some player/team evaluations later.

VEGAS!

We're back from our Vegas trip, during which we failed to enter a single blog post. We had a good time, and caught our fill of summer league action. A few non-performance-related highlights:

- Bill Russell drives a minivan. During the Seattle game on Friday, we sat about six seats away from the great Bill Russell. We didn't try to talk to him, but Mark snapped a picture of him exiting the stands after the game (see below). When we returned to our car after the game, Russell was sitting in the driver's seat of the vehicle next to us - a somewhat shabby-looking Toyota minivan. I gave him a wave, which he did not reciprocate. A middle-aged white guy hopped in Russell's passenger seat, and they pulled out.




- LeBron James sat courtside at the same game on Friday. In stark contrast to Russell, LeBron had a full 5-member posse, and exited the game through the tunnel rather than fight through the crowds. I overheard a young autograph-seeker later saying that LeBron had walked through the lobby at some point, but was so fully surrounded by posse members that the kids couldn't get near him.


- Chris Mullin was sitting 15 or 20 rows up from us on Friday, near the aisle where he was easily accessible to fans. As we exited the arena, Mullin was in a conversation with some front-office-type guy that I didn't recognize. This did not deter a random middle-aged man wearing a fanny pack. Fanny Pack shoved his head in to Mullin's conversation and announced: "Mr. Mullin! Mr. Mullin! I used to carry your bags at the Westin!" To his credit, Mullin handled the situation quite graciously, and feigned some interest in Fanny Pack's story.

- Daniel Artest, Ron's little brother, played for the Kings' summer league squad. We sat directly behind the King's bench on Saturday during the Kings/Rockets game. I couldn't stop watching Artest during warmups and time-outs (unfortunately, he never made it into the game). His face looks strikingly similar to Ron's, only fatter. His physique is like a shorter Tractor Traylor. Daniel Artest would have looked out of place in the layup line of a Division-1 college team. His presence on an NBA roster (even summer league) was ridiculous. He missed just about every shot he put up during warm-ups (although he worked harder than anyone else on the floor, breaking a substantial sweat). He did manage a two-hand dunk off of two feet with no run-up, no small feat for a guy his size. Artest was enthusiastic during time-outs, shouting the loudest "defense" of anyone on the team as the huddle broke. If the fat guy from the And-1 tour (Escalade is his nickname - I had to do a bit of research there) were to retire, I could see Artest making a run at that job.



-The woman sitting a few seats down from me let out a scream of pure joy when the Blazers finally defeated the Suns on Saturday. I watched several of these summer league games without once thinking to look at the scoreboard. The outcome of summer league games is, in my mind, absolutely meaningless. The same woman made repeated attempts to present Sergio "Spanish Chocolate" Rodriguez with a gift of red, black and silver M&Ms she had special ordered for him. At one point she cornered LaMarcus Aldridge (not in uniform Saturday), who agreed to give them to Sergio. Some Blazer staffer took the M&Ms to the locker room after the game.

Impact of the Steve Francis Buy-Out

The Blazers bought out Steve Francis, allegedly for around $30 million. Some Blazer fans are mad because (a) the Blazers didn't manage to talk Francis down very much, and (b) $30 million is a ton of money to pay somebody to play against the Blazers. I can't really refute either of these arguments, but it looks to me like the Blazers really didn't want Z-Bo or Steve Francis anywhere near the team next year.

Here is my calculation of how the Francis buy-out will affect the Blazers' salary cap:

Francis was owed $33.6 million over the next two years. I'll estimate the buy-out amount to be $30.5 million. The $30.5 million will hit our cap in the next two seasons in the same proportion Francis' salary would have been paid under his contract - around 48.8% this year and 51.2% next year. But we also get a set-off for his new contract. If Francis signs with the Clippers for $6 million for two years, the Blazers' cap liability will be reduced in each of the next two seasons by 50% of ($3 million minus the league minimum salary). This probably works out to about $1.1 million in cap reduction for each of the next two seasons. So Francis will hit Portland's cap for approximately $13.8 million in 2007-08 and $14.5 million in 2008-09.

The buy-out saves the Blazers at least $5 million over the next two years, and possibly as much as $10 million (because of luxury tax), depending on the Blazers' final cap figure. There is no chance that the Blazers will get under the cap before 2009, but Paul Allen saves a few bucks.

Jason Quick had a note in his blog that Portland has negotiated a 50% offset on Francis. I'm not sure what this means... but perhaps the Blazers are going to get a slightly larger offset than the one I calculated.

Greg Oden to shut it down

As it's been reported by several outlets, Greg Oden has decided to shut it down for the summer and get that much needed tonsillectomy. I'm disappointed that we won't get to see him in Vegas but I can't blame him. I think the tonsils and fatigue have taken a huge toll on him as evidenced by his play in the first two games. If you read Jason Quick's summer league report you get a good view of his tonsil problems.

I think this is a wise move by Portland to shut him down. Let the guy rest for a few weeks and recuperate. He's been going 100 miles an hour for about the past month, flying to Portland, Ohio, New York and elsewhere. We don't need to burn the kid out before he even suits up in a real uniform for Portland.

I'm hoping Greg eats some ice cream, relaxes and gets healthy so he can play at 100% the moment the season starts. We saw glimpses of what he can do but we still have yet to see Oden play at 100% percent. He either had broken wrist or tonsils so swollen that only a passageway "the size of a green grape was evident" (that's some in-depth...and disgusting, reporting by Quick) so there's no reason to push it. That he was even out there is a testiment to his committment and drive. I have a funny feeling that if Zach or Darius had even the sniffles they would have begged out of playing...but not partying in Vegas.

This decision now opens the door for others like Zenden Hamilton (I'm glad I paid $51 bucks to see Zen), Joel Freeland and others.

Can't blame Oden for taking a rest, if anyone has earned a break, it's him.

Summer League Game 2 - player observations

Martell Webster - His ballhandling is a disaster, and he missed most of his 3s. But I also saw some good things from Martell. He had a couple of athletic steals, plus a near-steal that he booted out of bounds. He had a tremendous offensive rebound and putback - his rebounding was very good again this game. I've been impressed with Martell's effort so far in summer league. On one play, he ran out for a breakaway layup, then sprinted back defensively to contest a shot at the other end. Martell still needs to figure out his role (he will have to get his points by moving without the ball - and maybe by developing a post-up game?), but at least the effort is there.

Greg Oden - Oden's post game is very effective when he can create a shot on his initial lunge toward the basket. If he has to reverse his pivot or fade away, its just ugly. On defense, he has a lot to learn about position. The offensive player can draw a foul on Oden every time by shielding the ball and leaping into him. Oden needs to establish position early to take a charge, or position his body so that there is no contact and take a swipe at the ball. LaMarcus Aldridge is starting to become very adept at this. Oden seems to be a favorite target of the officials so far - he's been called for a ton of cheap fouls, especially on offense. We saw glimpses of the Oden/Aldridge high-low game. This will be devastating in the future.

LaMarcus Aldridge - I'm afraid he's playing too well and won't be available as a sleeper in my fantasy basketball league. Other than that, there's nothing bad to say about this guy. He's been flat-out terrific at both ends of the court.

Sergio Rodriguez - His lack of outside shooting is crippling his game. If he could shoot like JJ Barea, he'd be fantastic. Barea is smaller, slower, and lacks Sergio's wizardry with the ball. But Barea outplayed Sergio because he plays under control and can light it up from the outside.

Joel Freeland - He scored a couple of times. Seems to have a decent skill set for a young big man. We lose a ton of shotblocking and mobility on defense when he checks in.

Josh McRoberts - Is this guy still on the team? I didn't notice him at all this game.

Taurean Green- an unimpressive outing for a guy fighting to make the roster. He turned the ball over too much and didn't shoot well.

Terrance Green- He actually got on the court near the end of the game. Terrance was my teammate for a week at Rip City Hoop Camp in Portland in 1993 or '94. Our team won the camp championship.

Summer League Game 2 - Observations

Greg Oden's second game was quite a bit better than his first. 13 points, five boards, four blocks and "only" nine fouls. Oden is obviously tired and out of shape but still managed a few ohmygosh moments, including a ferocious dunk over Pops Mensah-Bonsu where he drew is first NBA "T" for hanging on the rim. I think it was worth it.

Some other points from day 2.

• I know that many of the players are trying to earn their way onto rosters, but I have no idea about the refs. Are they training them to be the next generation of officials? All I know is, the third quarter of the Portland/Dallas game was unwatchable because of all the fouls. There was a segment of about four minutes where there was a foul at every end of the floor...and I don't think I'm exaggerating either.
• LaMarcus Aldridge has been dynamite in the two games. He runs well, has a great outside shot and just looks tougher all the way around. He's definitely the leader of the summer league team and appears to be responding to the role. I loved his first move of the game yesterday. He caught the ball on the block and swung the ball through about an inch from Mensah-Bonsu's nose. Powered his way into the paint and knocked Mensah-Bonsu off balance and then rose up for about a four foot fadeaway. Unfortunately, he missed the shot, but it was a great move and great shot that just didn't go. I get the feeling the Aldridge is just scratching the surface of his abilities
• The Blazers offense reminds me of the Mo Cheeks coached/Damon Stoudamire run teams of a few years back. So many high screens, so little action for anyone else. Aldridge and Oden are great screeners and Sergio Rodriguez is quick, but I'd like to see Portland do more of the high low action with Aldridge high looking for Oden low. It's unstoppable. If this is the offense that McMillan plans on running, they're better of with Brandon Roy at the point because he makes things happen with good decision making.
• I know they only got like a week or so to practice, but I think Portland's coaching staff could have come up with a more imaginative offense. The high screen every time down the floor often wastes a ton of time and Sergio makes a good decision with the pass about 1 out of every 3 trips down the floor. He cannot be counted on to run a team for 35 minutes a night.
• Martell Webster, despite the tough looking new 'do, is terrible. One of the worst ballhandler's I've ever seen. Literally has no left hand whatsoever. There was one particularly bad segment in the third quarter when he got the ball on the left hand wing, nearly lost it, bounced away from his defender (sort of), dribbled left and shot a disasterous fadeaway that led to a quick Mavs dunk the other way. Moments later he came off a high screen dribbling left, the post defender showed and Martell instantly lost the ball trying to spin away. The turnover led to another Mavs bucket. He really needs to step up or he could find himself in the "D" league again trying to earn a spot back in Portland or the NBA.
• Portland's guard play in general has been terrible. Bad offense, bad defense and bad passing. As I said, Sergio's success to failure ratio is not good and Martell is just so limited on both ends of the floor. Taurean Green has played admirably as the back-up and has not been clearly outplayed by Sergio. The other wings have not impressed me very much. Having Brandon Roy would help considerably...as would the addition of Travis Outlaw.
• I think Jarrett Jack should be feeling a lot better about his standing in Portland's rotation after the first two days. For some reason, Portland fan's love Sergio...for no real reason. Fans are dumb sometimes.
• Oden and Aldridge are definitely twin towers. Once they figure out how to work together and how to best complement each other...look out. They're both long and I think they're both very committed to basketball, winning and excellence. Those three things alone will take them far in this league.
• Oden is raw offensively. He'll rely on brute force and strength for much of his points early in his career. He's more Shaq than Tim Duncan in that regard. I'm hopeful that his post moves develop and he learns some counters to defensive positioning. He had a couple of ferocious dunks yesterday but probably the most impressive move was when he caught the ball no the left block, took a dribble to the middle, faked like he was going to spin towards the baseline and then finished a pretty left-handed jump hook. That the move was against Nick Fazekas is not lost on me but still, it was a very promising move.

Oden a Bust? - First Summer League Game Observations

Greg Oden managed 6 points and 10 fouls in his Blazer debut. As much as he sucked last night, I'm not too worried. He's got four months to get in shape and figure out where he needs to be on the court before opening day. Even with his current conditioning, I think he'll be much better in subsequent summer league games. Last night did make me think it will probably take a season or two before he becomes a truly dominant force.

LaMarcus Aldridge, however, is already a dominant force. He blocks shots, rebounds, runs the floor, shoots outside, and finishes in the paint. Aldridge blocked more shots last night than Zach Randolph did in the months of January and February combined last season. I found it interesting that Aldridge matched up with Glen Davis much of the night. Aldridge was heavily criticized leading up to the 2006 draft for his poor shooting performance against Davis and LSU in the NCAA tournament. Aldridge had no problem scoring on Davis last night. He scored repeatedly just by beating everybody down the court for a layup, and his mid-range jumper was deadly.

Martell Webster impressed me last night - although not with his offense. He struggled with his shot much of the night. But he seemed to be giving a nice effort at the defensive end, and he rebounded aggressively. His most impressive moment on offense was an authoritative but unsuccessful dunk attempt. I think it's time for Webster to give up on living up to his status as the #6 overall pick and focus on becoming a deadly spot-up shooter and a tough defender. He doesn't have the quickness to take anybody off the dribble. But if he embraces his role, he could be an effective contributor.

Sergio Rodriguez looked just like he did last season. Spectacular at times, but sloppy and out-of-control much of the game. Jarrett Jack's job is very safe at this point.

Taurean Green is athletic. I think he'll make the roster - and has a good chance to stick as a 3rd-string point guard in the League.

Oden & Durant - Busts?

No chance. But Greg Oden and Kevin Durant had unimpressive debuts yesterday and in the case of Oden, it was disasterous. Granted, it's just summer league so I'm not worried and because as any Blazer fan remembers, Qyntel Woods was once the MVP of this summer league. So it's not a strong indicator of future success or failure.

Oden's debut was probably the most anticipated Portland debut in years. It started off pooly, three fouls in the first four minutes. He went to the bench and never really got into a flow. Management will tell you he's battling a sinus infection and waiting to have tonsils removed. Surely all of the cross-country travel is not helping. I think it's a case of a guy just being worn out and not in shape.

When you look at the last month of his life, he's been on the go constantly. I am not worried about Oden in the slightest. I have a strong feeling we'll see the dominant Oden before this summer is over (hopefully next Saturday and Sunday when we're there to see it).

Durant had 18 points but was just 5-17 from the field but was 7-9 from the foul line. He wasn't very active in other phases, tallying just 1 board and zero assists. I think Durant is going to struggle badly at times this year. He appeared to be susceptible to pressure defense, particularly when he caught the ball out high. When he went into the post or towards the rim, he had a better chance to score.

The thing that discourages me about Durant was his failure to help the team in other phases. No rebounding, no passing or hustle plays. He's a shooter, 100%. I see him being a good spot up shooter and someone who can go post up smaller players. This is what I saw from him Friday night.

Summer League - Live Stream

Here is the link where you can catch the live webcast of all the Vegas summer league games:

http://www.nba.com/summerleague2007/scoreboard.jsp

It's free, but you have to register.

Western Conference Analysis

Now appears to be a good time to be a Blazer fan. The bandwagon is quickly refilling so get your spots now. There are several obvious reasons to return to the Blazers, namely:

Greg Oden will be donning a Blazer uni and figures to man the middle for the next 12-15 years.

Kevin Pritchard – A GM short on experience but long on common sense. He worked with San Antonio and they are a model franchise. That’s a solid franchise to learn from.

’06 Draft – The day Pritchard officially turned the franchise around. Eschewing public opinion by avoiding the ‘stache (Adam Morrison), the Blazers instead made a slew of deals and came away with arguably the two best players in the ’06 draft, LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy. Of course Roy won the rookie of the year and Aldridge began to show glimpses of his ceiling midway through the year before shutting it down with a heart condition that required surgery (this condition will not keep him out of games and he will be on the Vegas Summer League team).

The Western Conference leaders are all getting older

It’s this point I’d like to discuss a little more at length. While the Blazers have been mired in awfulness in the last three years, the Western Conference has dominated the league for what seems like eternity. Really, it’s been two teams, the Lakers and the Spurs. Those two franchises have won seven of the last nine championships and the Lakers were runners up one of those years. So, the western conference has been running the NBA show for the past decade.

So the Blazers were terrible for a few years, gave us the Jail Blazers Era, the Sebastian Telfair era, the Darius Miles/Zach Randolph Era but now, they give us the fearsome foursome era with Oden, Mayor Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Jarrett Jack. These four Blazers will surely take Portland back to the top of the Western Conference heap.

Starting with the champions and moving backwards, we can analyze the teams currently ahead of the Blazers and judge if they are moving forward, backward or staying the same. This is long term, over the next four or five years. I cannot possibly take into account things like draft luck, blockbuster deals or prison sentences.

San Antonio – Fourth title in nine years. The most dominant low post player in the game. Quicksilver guards and a very well run organization to boot. In my view, Duncan has another three or four years as the best low post player in the game. Virtually unstoppable right now and I expect him to continue at that level for the next three or four years. After that, I predict that he has another three or four years of being a really good player but not the superstar. The Spurs also have Manu who has four or five peak years left to run with Duncan and then Parker, who is just scratching the surface and discovering his outside shot and leadership abilities. When Duncan loses steam, Parker should be at the peak of his career and look for Popovich to adjust the offense slightly to take advantage of Parker’s quickness.
Verdict – Moving forward – The Spurs are too well run to fall apart at this point. I think they have six to eight more years of being at or near the top of the entire league.

Utah – Sloan has been in Utah ever since I can remember. He thinks he might have found Stockton and Malone version 2.0 in Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams and after a great playoff run, he might be right. At one point, Andrei Kirilenko was one of the games most versatile players. A juggernaut on defense and on the glass, a true utility man with superstar abilities. But something happened. He lost playing time, he played out of position, his wife cried to the papers or something, but now, they’re looking to move him. If I’m Jerry Sloan, I’m trying to find a way to keep Kirilenko because he’s a smart player and does so many things well. It’s tough to find players like that. He does make a fortune though and signing Williams will be priority number one when he’s a free agent. Williams emerged as the best young point guard in the league. Chris Paul is a great player, but until he does what Deron Williams did in the NBA playoffs, I will rate Williams higher.
Verdict – Moving forward – The nucleus of Williams, Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Kirlenko is young, versatile and dangerous. If Sloan can keep it all together and get those four to buy into what he’s preached for the last 100 years, Utah should consistently finish near the top of the pack. A true, high scoring wingman would make them super dangerous.

Phoenix –Steve Nash’s back can’t hold up much longer. For some reason Shawn Marion thinks he can be the best player on a good team and Amare Stoudemire had one of the most serious knee surgeries out there. He’s still explosive, but not 40 points per game against San Antonio in the western conference semi’s explosive. Their window is closing and D’Antoni’s system is predicated on Steve Nash and his ability to read defenses and make plays. Leandro Barbosa is a quick point guard but posses neither the brain nor the body control to run the team the way Nash does. Plus, they don’t play defense and can’t get stops when it matters the most. Teams that execute well, like San Antonio, run their offense with too much precision to beat themselves which is essentially what Phoenix is hoping for when playing defense.
Verdict – Moving back – When Nash retires, D’Antoni will have to revamp his system. Marion wants to show his alpha dog stuff and Stoudemire’s knee is and always will be a question.

Golden State – 100% flash in the pan. This team teetered on the brink all year and got hot at the right time. They drew the perfect opponent and Don Nelson lived in Avery Johnson’s head the whole series. So much so that before they even played a game, Johnson was tinkering with his lineup. Dallas won 67 games this year, yet Johnson feels that a 42-40 eight seed can’t be beaten. Ridiculous. Buoyed by a boisterous Golden State crowd, the Warriors pulled the upset against Dallas and regular season MVP Dirk Nowitzki will be seeing visions of Stephen Jackson in his sleep. But when you look at Golden State, they play small ball but it’s a different small ball than Phoenix. They just jack threes. They are dependant upon penetration and kicks and when things are going well, it’s a fun offense. But when legs are tired and shots are off, it’s abysmal. Baron Davis hasn’t proven to be consistent player, despite freakish abilities and Stephen Jackson hasn’t proven that he can avoid prison. Matt Barnes burst onto the scene because he worked hard and collected boards and dunked on some people. He will soon parlay that into a huge deal from someone (probably Boston or New York).
Verdict – Moving back – Nelson has proved adept at turning around organizations. But this is Golden State. They are too unstable physically (Davis) and emotionally (Jackson) to contend on a yearly basis. Plus they just traded away Richardson for Branden Wright who is probably several years away from contributing like Richardson did.

Dallas – Will they blow it up? I say they won’t. They won 67 games and drew the worst possible matchup in the first round. They are lacking some inside scoring and the new NBA allows them to be formidable but not championship caliber yet. Dirk is Dirk and he had a lousy playoff series. He doesn’t like to bang but he’s easily one of the top players in the league. Devin Harris is burgeoning into a good point guard in the mode of Tony Parker. Lightning quick but still discovering his outside shot. When he does that, look out, he will be sensational. Josh Howard is a versatile forward with several different skills. I don’t think the Mavs should blow it up but perhaps if they can snag a good, rugged low post player (Zach Randolph might have helped) it would really help in crunch time.
Verdict – Staying – You don’t win 67 games without being good. Avery Johnson essentially told the team before the series, “You are not good enough to win so I have to make adjustments.” Absolutely stupid coaching move. For a team that nearly won a championship a year ago, blowing the thing up is a bad idea. Make a few adjustments, but don’t blow it up.

Houston – A very good big man teamed with an electrifying, dangerous and high scoring wing so why can’t this team win a playoff series? Could it be that they start Chuck Hayes at a forward and a former street baller at the point? This team is interesting because they have some pieces, arguably two of the best at their respective positions, but the rest of the lineup is unimpressive. They’ll need to upgrade several positions or risk plummeting in the standings. Two players are not enough to contend for a title.
Verdict – Staying or Moving back – Yao and McGrady aren’t getting younger, so Houston should consider making a move ASAP. Teams like Portland, Utah, and Seattle could be on their way up, while teams like San Antonio and Dallas aren’t going anywhere soon. Make a move or they’re out of the playoffs.

LA Lakers – Will this Kobe crap ever stop? The guy chased Shaq out of town but now he’s critical of the front office because the guys they brought in aren’t good enough. Had Shaq and Kobe put aside their egos, they probably could have won a couple more titles but as it is, they hung their hat on Kobe and it’s led to two first round exits. Long term, this franchise is not going anywhere. Kobe is getting older and is obviously somewhat of a cancer. What free agent would want to play with him? Not many. Kevin Garnett may be the only exception to this rule though. If any superstar would be happy being the second gunman, it would be KG. Bringing in KG would mean trading Bynum, Odom and other crap which isn’t a big deal but it would make them contenders for the next few years. Still, long term, KG and Kobe don’t have enough peak years left to overtake the current conference elite.
Verdict – Moving back – No KG in LA yet so it could get ugly in LA. Phil Jackson didn’t come to LA to lose, which he’s doing and Kobe has to be learning that he can’t do it on his own…even though he was dead certain he could. They have to get better and fast, but their window is closing…particularly if Garnett goes elsewhere.

Denver – How long can the Carmelo Anthony/Allen Iverson marriage last? When things are going well, I can see it working. But the moment something bad happens, a five game losing streak or one guy looking off the other and forcing a shot I can see things imploding. There’s some role guys in place but can two of the highest scoring players in the league really co-exist peacefully. My gut says no and I think I’ll be right. Iverson is at the tail end of his career and amazingly, his body hasn’t broken down yet. But he can’t keep playing at this level for ever. Anthony is just beginning his rise. Denver is another team that has to do something to keep up. I think it’s too volatile of a situation to last and turn into something great. Really, KG is the only superstar content to be a #2. And for the most part, every team needs a clear cut Batman and a clear cut Robin. Denver has two Batman’s and Steve Blake…not good.
Verdict – Staying…at best – Things could get ugly quick in Denver. Once The Joker Steve Blake signs with Portland, they’re in huge trouble. Things could explode and explode spectacularly in Denver. Or they could fizzle out and lose in the first round yet again. All in all, it’s not a team built for the long haul although they do have the consummate hammer scorer in Anthony. If they put some pieces around him, look out. But they haven’t done that and haven’t shown any signs that they’re going to, so I’ll say they’re staying.

The Blazers are moving forward…and fast. They won 11 more games last year than the year before, and that was with many of their best players missing games at various points of the season. Roy missed 20+ early in the season. Zach missed the end of the year. Pryzbilla took some mysterious knee to the pills and missed a ton of time. LaMarcus had that scary heart condition that appears to be rectified. So in short, Portland had four of its top players miss serious time with injuries yet still improved by 11 games. In fact, in a late season game against Houston, when the Rockets were readying for their playoff run, the Blazers nearly beat them with a lineup of Dan Dickau, Martell Webster, Brandon Roy, Travis Outlaw, and Luke Schenscher. That’s four D-Leaguers and a rookie of the year.

Replace the D-Leaguers with legitimate NBA players which Jarrett Jack, Greg Oden, and LaMarcus Aldridge are, you’ve got a pretty good squad. In two or three years, you have a championship contender.

Canzano Response

I emailed John Canzano yesterday pointing out that Miles' contract doesn't expire until 2010. Here's his response:

J: Francis' contract, not Miles, comes off that year. The cap space remains the same. They'll have between $12 and 24 million, depending on what they decide todo. Thanks for being a careful reader.
JC

Although he admits he's wrong about Miles' contract, he denies that it affects our cap space in 09. I don't see how the cap space remains the same if you add a $9 million contract to the payroll. Either we get rid of Miles' contract, or we have a lot less cap space than Canzano says.

Blazers Salary Cap Analysis

John Canzano says this of the Z-Bo/Steve Francis trade:

"The rub goes like this... Portland will have between $12-24 million in cap space two years from now because of this deal."
http://blog.oregonlive.com/johncanzano/

Upon analysis, that figure seems wildly optimistic. Last year's salary cap was $53 million. Factoring in a decent annual increase, let's say the 2009/2010 cap will be $60 million.

--------------------Update------------------------------------
Canzano's column today says Darius Miles' contract expires in 2009. Every other source I can find says it runs until 2010. This is likely the cause of Canzano's exaggerated cap space figure.
------------------------------------------------------------

The Blazers who will be under contract, (assuming team options are exercised) for 2009-2010 are:

Darius Miles: 9
Joel Przybilla: 6.9
LaMarcus Aldridge: 5.9
Sergio Rodriguez: 1.9
Greg Oden: 6.3
Brandon Roy: 3.9
Rudy Fernandez 1.7

Total Salary: $35.6 million

Pritchard has announced his intention to match any offers for Travis Outlaw. Travis is likely to be offered the full mid-level exception by someone, so I'll pencil him in for $6 million in '09/10.

Total Salary: $41.6 million

This is only 8 players, so now I'll fill in some roster spots with cheap contracts (bench point guard and power forward, 1st round pick from 08 or 09 draft (salaries estimated)):

McRoberts or Freeland: 1.5
Green or Koponen: 1.6
1st rounder: 1.2

Now the Blazers have 11 players and a payroll of $45.9 million. Let's assume Raef, Ime and James Jones are gone. Jarrett Jack, Martell Webster and Channing Frye all expire in '09. If Portland re-signs just one of them for $6 million and lets the other two walk, payroll is close to $52 million. Throw in a couple of minimum contracts, and it's up to $53 million. That would put the Blazers just $7 million under a $60 million cap.

So, unless the Blazers are willing to let a lot of young talent walk away, I don't think they'll have the massive cap space Canzano envisions.

Some ways the Blazers could reduce payroll:

-Darius Miles could be traded for a shorter contract or retire due to injury (ideal scenario).
-They could let Outlaw walk this year, and instead sign Ime Udoka to a 2-year deal.
- They could let Jack, Webster and Frye walk after the 08/09 season.
- They could package Joel Pryzbilla with Jack/Webster/Frye/Outlaw/future picks for an expiring contract prior to the '09 trade deadline.

Even if the Blazers don't manage to free up cap space, they could acquire a big contract in '09 by trading Lafrentz' expiring contract plus young players and/or picks.

I've made a lot of assumptions and estimates in these projections. My salary figures are based on the rookie salary scale, the number posted here: http://www.hoopshype.com/salaries/portland.htm, and where indicated, pure conjecture.

Free Agent Updates and Speculation

Rashard Lewis is reportedly headed to Orlando for a max deal, likely worth $15 - 16 million a year. I thought Lewis would have been a very nice fit for the Blazers, but that was never realistic. Seattle would have had to sign-and-trade him to Portland (a division rival) for marginal value and a big contract in return. By letting Lewis walk, Seattle gets no compensation, but drops a ton of salary off its books. With the franchise in limbo as to which city it will land in, letting Lewis walk was the smart financial move.

Free agents are commanding a high price this off-season. Lewis is a very good player, but without some additional help I don't think he makes Orlando a contender.

Jason Kapono scored $5 million a year from the Raptors. Luke Walton got a similar deal from the Lakers. Steve Blake is said to be seeking a deal in the upper range of the mid-level exception, and he'll probably get it. If you need veteran point guard help, there isn't much out there.

Gerald Wallace will likely cost a team $10 million/year or more. If management decides he's worth it, I'm not convinced the Blazers have the right assets to entice Charlotte into a sign-and-trade. Perhaps some combination Webster, Outlaw and one of our point guards?

Although signing an expensive free agent like Wallace would kill the Blazers' 09 cap space, it wouldn't be management's last chance to improve the team down the road. Raef Lafrentz (expiring in '09) or Darius Miles (expiring in '10) could be used in a package late in those seasons to land a highly-paid veteran.

McRoberts Signs 2-year Deal

...according to his mom, according to Indystar.com.

No details given - I suspect this could be a one-year deal with a team option for a second year. This signing is not a big surprise. I think everybody feels like we got a great deal picking McRoberts up in the second round, and there was no reason to think he wouldn't be on the roster this year.

Video Links

Stephon Marbury is excited about Z-Bo. He says the Knicks got younger and "youthier".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYY338_JgvI

Summer league practice has begun. Some good interviews in this clip. Interesting quote from Aldridge: "we had some guys in the past that wasn't (sic) really fun to be around." I don't think he's referring to Fred Jones or Dan Dickau here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8B0heT301xM

Gerald Wallace

The Blazers are one of several teams being mentioned as interested in signing Gerald Wallace. Wallace, who turns 25 later this month, has put up tremendous numbers the last two years for the miserable Bobcats, including over 2 steals a game. He can't shoot outside, but he's maniacal attacking the basket. He's missed significant time due to injury in each of the last three seasons. Wallace is likely to command around $10 million a season, and the Bobcats have expressed an intent to re-sign him. The Blazers would have to put together a sign-and-trade package to make anything happen.

Wallace would be a big upgrade for Portland at the small forward spot. A lineup of Jack/Roy/Wallace/Aldridge/Oden could be devastating defensively, but would lack perimeter shooting.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2922746

Vegas Summer League Tickets - 50% off

If you're planning to be in Vegas to see the Blazers summer league squad, use the promo code GENA to get your tickets 50% off. It took me a little digging to figure out how to use the code, so I'm posting the direct link below:

http://ev2.evenue.net/cgi-bin/ncommerce3/ExecMacro/evenue/ev68/se/DisplayPromoList.d2w/report?linkID=unlv&RSRC=&RDAT=&caller=PR

I hope to see a good contingent of Blazer fans in Vegas. I'll be taking in the action on the 13th and 14th. Other contributors to this blog will be at games on the 11th - 15th.

Oden in Pioneer Square

My nephew is in the front row, right behind the microphone stand. He scored an autograph.

------------Update-------------------

My nephew is interviewed by KATU, declaring Oden to be "really good at basketball"

http://www.katu.com/sports/8250267.html (click on the video link at the beginning of the text)

Summer League Roster

----------------Update---------------------

Koponen has been added to the summer league roster. Speculation - could Fernandez be added after the NY and Phoenix trades are finalized??

---------------------------------------------
#0 Taurean Green#2 Josh McRoberts#6 Stefano Mancinelli#8 Martell Webster#11 Sergio Rodriguez#12 LaMarcus Aldridge#18 Rick Apodaca#31 Zendon Hamilton#41 Joel Freeland#42 Mo Charlo#52 Greg Oden

http://blog.oregonlive.com/blazers/

Looks like 7 players of interest will be playing:

Green, McRoberts, Webster, Sergio, Aldridge, Freeland and Oden.

This will be our first look at the Aldridge/Oden tandem. I'm ready to go to Vegas.

Roster Analysis

I’d like to think Pritchard can make another move or two before the season starts, but let’s take a look at what the Blazers have right now:

12 Guaranteed Contracts:

C – Greg Oden, Joel Pryzbilla, Raef Lafrentz
PF – LaMarcus Aldridge, Channing Frye
SF – James Jones, Darius Miles
SG – Brandon Roy, Martell Webster
PG – Jarrett Jack, Sergio Rodriguez, Steve Francis

2 Euros Selected in the 1st round:

PG – Petteri Koponen
SG - Rudy Fernandez

2 Second Round Picks:

PF- Josh McRoberts
PG – Taurean Green

3 Free Agents:

SF - Ime Udoka, Travis Outlaw
C - Jamal Magloire

This gives us a total of 19 players.

Jamal Magloire will not be re-signed. Rudy Fernandez will stay in Europe. That give us 17.

We won’t see both Koponen and Green on the roster this year. Either Koponen will stay in Europe or Green will be cut. That narrows it to 16.

Reportedly, we will try to buy out Steve Francis. Assuming that happens, we’d be down to 15.

I will be shocked if McRoberts doesn’t make the roster. I think he was a steal. I also think we should re-sign Ime (2 years, $2 million per) and Outlaw (4 years, $5 million per). We don’t want to play James Jones 40 minutes a night.

So my opening day depth chart looks like:

C- Oden/Pryzbilla/Lafrentz
PF- Aldridge/Outlaw/Frye/McRoberts
SF- Jones/Udoka/Miles
SG- Roy/Webster
PG- Jack/Sergio/Green

I see two serious weaknesses here: (i) youth, and (ii) lack of talent at the small forward position. Ten of our fifteen players are 23 or younger (actually 9, Frye just turned 24), including at least four starters. All that youth is great for the future of the franchise, but it will be tough to win a lot of games in the short term. This problem will take care of itself over the next few years.

The Blazers won’t be a contender until they upgrade at the small forward position. If Travis Outlaw or Martell Webster were to make huge strides over the next couple of seasons, that would work. Rudy Fernandez might be able to start alongside Roy in a year or two. But most likely, we’ll need to acquire another player through a trade or free agency. Our chances of bringing someone in this year fell significantly when we traded Z-Bo to New York. I’d like to see us dangle our tradeable non-core assets (Frye, Webster, Sergio, Fernandez, Koponen, Outlaw) in hopes of landing a veteran small forward that could help us right away (but young enough to still be a contributor four or five years down the road.) Rashard Lewis would be ideal, as would Tayshaun Prince. Gerald Wallace or Andres Nocioni could work.

Draft Thoughts - Around the League

- The Warriors, by sending Jason Richardson to the Bobcats for Brandan Wright, traded themselves back into the lottery next year. Wright is years aways from being an impact player. On the other hand, Charlotte took a real step toward being competitive. Richardson and Gerald Wallace would make a nice wing tandem if they could re-sign Wallace. If they want to sign and trade Wallace, KP should be calling.

- The Knicks already had the league's most dysfunctional roster heading into the draft. Trading for Zach Randolph didn't help. Randolph and Curry will form the slowest, worst-defending post tandem in the league - and they're both under contract until 2011, as is Jamal Crawford. Any chance the Knicks had of cleaning house to land LeBron, Carmelo or D-Wade as a free agent down the line is now gone.

- The Celtics will be fun to watch, and will contend in the East for the next couple of years. I like the core of Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Al Jefferson and Rajon Rondo. But they're not goood enough to win a championship, and Allen doesn't have a whole lot left in the tank.

- Seattle's selection of Jeff Green doesn't make sense if they're planning to re-sign Rashard Lewis. I might run Lewis, Green and Durant out there at the 2/3/4 spots, but I've never seen a lineup like that before.

- Atlanta managed to not screw up their two lottery picks. Some have criticized the Horford pick, because Atlanta already has a ton of forwards. But none of Atlanta's other forwards can score in the post. That's like criticizing Portland for taking Oden because we already have Pryzbilla.

- The Lakers made no trades and drafted Javaris Crittenton. They're going nowhere.

Will the Blazers Regret Taking Oden?

This lady thinks they should have picked Durant:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/27/AR2007062702924.html?hpid=sec-sports

"He's here, his name is Kevin Durant, and if the Portland Trail Blazers pass on him in the NBA draft in favor of Greg Oden, they'll rue it. Durant is a player for a new era, while a center like Oden, good as he might be, is a dinosaur by comparison. Draft Oden, and you get a guy who can play one position. Draft Durant, and you get a guy who can play five."

If Durant drops 50 on us every time we play against him for the next 15 years, we might regret not taking him. But it won't be because he can play multiple positions. That's just stupid. Does it really add a lot of value to the Sonics that you could roll out your 6'9" scoring machine as a point guard? If you could clone Kevin Durant, and have five of him playing all five positions, that would be helpful. If you just have one, then he can only play one position at a time.

Also, if dominant post players are "dinosaurs" why does either Shaq or Tim Duncan win the title every year?

If the Blazers Buy Out Steve Francis, Could They Sign Rashard Lewis?

No.

According to Larry Koon's exhaustive NBA salary cap FAQ (available here: http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#1), if the Blazers bought out Steve Francis' contract, the total amount of the buyout would count against the salary cap spread over the remaining term of the contract. Francis has two years left on his deal, at $33.5 million. If he agreed to a buyout for $20 million, he would count against Portland's cap at $10 million for each of the next two seasons. Such a buy-out would save Paul Allen some salary and some luxury tax, but would not get the Blazers under the salary cap (by my calculation, the Blazers' cap total would be around $57 million if they renounced Travis Outlaw, Ime Udoka and Jamal Magloire, and Francis agreed to a $20 million buy-out - the NBA salary cap was $53 million last year). So even with a buy-out, the Blazers will not be able to sign a free agent for more than the mid-level exception.

I'm making the assumption here that Francis isn't going to take less than $20 million. Unless his market value is $13.5 million (or more) over two seasons, he would lose money by taking a $20 million buy-out.

From Larry Koon's FAQ:

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#59

How do buy-outs affect a team's salary cap?

The agreed-upon buy-out amount (see question number 59) is included in the team salary instead of the salary called for in the contract. If the player had more than one season left on his contract, then the buy-out money is distributed among those seasons in proportion to the original salary. For example, say a player had three seasons remaining on his contract, with salaries of $10 million, $11 million and $12 million. The player and team agree to a buyout of $15 million. The $15 million is therefore charged to the team salary over the three seasons. Since the original contract had $33 million left to be paid, and $10 million is 30.3% of $33 million, 30.3% of the $15 million buyout, or $4.545 million, is included in the team salary in the first season following the buyout. Likewise, 33.33% of $15 million, or $5 million, is included in the team salary in the second season, and 36.36% of $15 million, or $5.455 million, is included in the team salary in the third season.The distribution of the buy-out money is a matter of individual negotiation. Changing the number of years in which the money is paid does not change the number of years in which the team's team salary is charged. In the above example in which the player's contract is bought out with three seasons remaining, the buyout amount is always charged to the team salary over three seasons. It does not matter if the player is actually paid in a lump sum or over 20 years (a spread provision).

Proud Day for Chicago Bulls

I'm glad we had the #1 pick and not #9.

More Trades - James Jones

Update- the "other trade" is the acquisition of James Jones from the Suns, for a trade exception we picked up in the NY deal. Pretty weak.


From the Blazer post-draft press conference:

Pritchard says there is another deal pending, to be finalized in the next 7-10 days, involving a small forward. The Z-Bo trade has to be finalized before this next deal can go down. Pritchard says he'll probably get fined for talking about it.

Also, Demetrus Nichols was traded to the Knicks for a future 2nd-round pick.

Kevin Pritchard on KXL

----Update----

The Blazers need to finalize the NY trade before they can announce another trade in the works. Stay tuned....
_________________

Pritchard is explaining the ZBO trade-

"We felt like going in a different direction."

When asked about Francis:

"He's on our team - we look forward to those guys coming."

"We're excited about the trade. We think it helped us - gave us some cap relief down the line. It gives us flexibility to bring in a really talented free agent down the line."

Sounds like this trade was just a pure salary dump. I can't believe this is the best we could do.

NY trade update

Jason Quick reports the Z-Bo/Francis trade hasn't been finalized.

I'd back out while we still can.

Truehoop says this regarding a possible Steve Francis buyout:

"I have the suspicion that Steve Francis will never play in a Portland uniform, which is also what Blazer broadcaster Brian Wheeler is reportedly saying too. If he is bought out, Portland could get cap relief equivalent to half of whatever salary he might earn, if any, from another team."

If Francis is worth $8 million on the open market (that seems generous) that only gives Portland $4 million in cap relief. That doesn't leave us any room to sign a marquee small forward.

Dave at Blazersedge.com says this:
FYI if you're thinking contract buyout, the official rule is that the team and player can negotiate a buyout. It's up to them how much it's for. The buyout amount agreed upon counts against the cap. If Francis is willing to take a lot less money then a buyout makes sense. Otherwise there's little difference between buying him out or having him on the team. Well...except for the locker room cancer thing.

http://www.blazersedge.com/

Either way, we're not getting much cap relief this year.

I'm sorry to see Fred Jones go. He had a great attitude, he really wanted to play here, and I thought he was our best option as a backup to Brandon Roy.

Perhaps KP has a sign-and-trade in mind, but it doesn't look good.